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Is the World Getting Better or Worse? The Data Might Surprise You.
Scroll through your newsfeed on any given day, and it’s easy to feel a creeping sense of dread. A new conflict, a dire climate report, political polarization, economic anxiety—the headlines paint a relentless picture of a world in crisis. It feels intuitive, almost obvious, to conclude that things are getting worse.
But what if this feeling, while emotionally valid, is based on a skewed perspective? What if, by stepping back from the daily deluge of bad news and looking at long-term, global data, a completely different story emerges?
The truth is, when we measure human well-being across decades and centuries, the data tells a story not of decline, but of staggering, unprecedented progress. It’s a narrative that runs counter to our daily experience, and it might just change the way you see the world.
The Case for Progress: A Look at the Numbers
Let’s set aside anecdotes and feelings for a moment and look at some of the most fundamental indicators of the human condition.
1. Extreme Poverty Is in Historic Retreat
Perhaps the single most powerful indicator of a “better” world is the decline in extreme poverty. In 1990, according to the World Bank, nearly 2 billion people, or 36% of the world’s population, lived in extreme poverty (on less than $2.15 a day). By 2019, that number had fallen to around 650 million, or just over 8%.
Think about that: in the span of a single generation, over a billion people were lifted out of the most desperate conditions imaginable. This is arguably the greatest, and most under-reported, achievement in human history. While the pandemic caused a temporary setback, the long-term trajectory is one of dramatic improvement.
2. We Are Living Longer, Healthier Lives
A century ago, in 1900, global life expectancy was a grim 32 years. A child born then was more likely to die before their fifth birthday than to see their retirement. Today, the global average life expectancy is over 73 years.
This monumental leap is thanks to a cascade of public health miracles: vaccines that tamed killer diseases like smallpox and polio, improved sanitation and access to clean water, and a better understanding of nutrition. Child mortality has plummeted by over 90% in the last century. While health disparities still exist, the baseline for humanity has been raised to a level that would have seemed like science fiction to our great-grandparents.
3. The World Is More Literate and Educated Than Ever
In 1820, only 12% of the world’s population could read and write. Today, that figure stands at over 86%. This revolution in literacy has unlocked human potential on a massive scale. Education, especially for girls and women, is a powerful driver of economic growth, better health outcomes, and more stable societies. While access to quality education remains a challenge in many places, the trend is clear: humanity is becoming more knowledgeable.
4. We Are, Statistically, Living in the Most Peaceful Time in History
This claim often elicits the most skepticism, especially with horrific conflicts like the war in Ukraine dominating the news. But the work of scholars like Steven Pinker at Harvard, using data on conflict and violence, shows that the rate of violent death has been in a long-term decline for centuries.
The 20th century, with its two World Wars and numerous genocides, was the bloodiest in history in absolute numbers. However, the chance of an average person dying in a state-based conflict has been far lower in the 21st century than in most of the 20th. Homicide rates, too, have fallen in most parts of the world. This doesn’t diminish the tragedy of current wars, but it places them in a broader, more hopeful historical context.
So, Why Does It Feel So Bad?
If the data paints such a positive picture, why are so many of us convinced of the opposite? There are several powerful psychological and structural reasons.
- The Availability Heuristic: Our brains judge the state of the world based on the examples that come to mind most easily. Thanks to the 24/7 news cycle and social media, the most readily available examples are almost always negative: plane crashes, not the 100,000 flights that land safely every day; political scandals, not the quiet, functioning parts of government; conflict, not peace.
- News Is About What Goes Wrong: The nature of news is to report on exceptions. A gradual, decades-long decline in poverty isn’t a headline. A factory fire is. As the late statistician Hans Rosling put it, “The world is not as bad as it looks on the news. The world is much better.”
- Real, Urgent Problems Exist: Acknowledging progress is not the same as declaring “mission accomplished.” The challenges we face are immense and very real. Climate change is an existential threat. Inequality within countries is rising, fueling political instability. Mental health crises are growing. Democratic backsliding is a genuine concern. These problems are serious and demand our full attention.
Holding Two Truths at Once
This brings us to the crucial, nuanced conclusion. The world is not one thing. It is both better than it has ever been and facing profound, dangerous challenges.
These two truths are not contradictory. In fact, understanding the first is essential for tackling the second. The story of progress is not a reason for complacency; it is a source of motivation. It is proof that humanity can solve enormous problems. We have done it before. We eradicated smallpox. We slashed poverty. We dramatically increased lifespans.
Falling into despair because of the headlines is a luxury we can’t afford. It saps the energy and creativity needed to build a better future. The data shows us that progress is possible. It’s not inevitable, and it’s not easy, but it is achievable.
The world isn’t perfect, but by many objective measures, it is better. And knowing that is the first step to making it better still.
