Islamabad, Pakistan – When the international ministers of Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Egypt landed in Islamabad over the weekend, it marked the second assembly in lower than two weeks of a diplomatic observe working to include the fallout of the US-Israel conflict on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes throughout the area.
Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister and International Minister Ishaq Dar confirmed on the conclusion of Sunday’s consultations that the US and Iran had expressed confidence in Pakistan to facilitate direct talks. Islamabad, he stated, was “honoured” to host them “within the coming days, for a complete and lasting settlement of the continued battle”.
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The 4 ministers, he added, held “a really detailed and in-depth dialogue” on the conflict, reaffirmed “unity to include the state of affairs, cut back the chance of navy escalations and create circumstances for structured negotiations”, and agreed to represent a Committee of 4 senior officers, one from every international ministry, to work out the modalities of the method.
In addition to Dar, the assembly was attended by international ministers Hakan Fidan of Turkiye, Badr Abdelatty of Egypt and Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud of Saudi Arabia.
The quadrilateral format first got here collectively on the sidelines of the broader Arab and Islamic consultative assembly in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on March 19. What started as a wider gathering has hardened right into a centered four-country peace push, with Pakistan performing as the first channel between Washington and Tehran.
Hours later, in an interview with the British newspaper Monetary Occasions, United States President Donald Trump stated his “favorite factor is to take the oil in Iran” and didn’t rule out seizing Kharg Island, the export hub that handles roughly 90 % of Iran’s crude.
“Possibly we take Kharg Island, possibly we don’t. We’ve numerous choices,” Trump stated. He additionally confirmed that oblique talks by way of Pakistani “emissaries” had been progressing and reiterated the April 6 deadline he set on Reality Social on March 26 for Iran to just accept a deal or face US strikes on its vitality sector.
However on board Air Power One on Sunday, Trump stated, “I do see a deal in Iran, yeah. May very well be quickly”, and described negotiations as going “extraordinarily properly”.
These contrasting postures underscored the central pressure confronting Pakistan’s diplomatic initiative.
At a second when Islamabad and its companions are trying to construct a multilateral framework to forestall additional escalation, the conflict seems headed in the wrong way, with continued Israeli strikes and an increasing US navy presence within the area.
‘Child steps’ amid escalation
Mushahid Hussain Sayed, former Pakistani data minister, senator and international coverage analyst, stated the Islamabad assembly was important for 3 causes.
He described it as the primary institutional initiative from the Muslim world aimed toward opening a pathway to dialogue.
In accordance with Sayed, Pakistan and Turkiye, each neighbours of Iran, are among the many most credible interlocutors accessible, one a nuclear energy and the opposite a NATO member.
“Each Iran and the US have reposed confidence in Pakistan as a bridge of communication between Tehran and Washington, and probably the possible venue for any future peace talks,” he instructed Al Jazeera.
However he was blunt concerning the limitations. “These are child steps for diplomacy in a conflict situation that isn’t solely escalating but additionally turning into extra difficult by the day,” Sayed stated.
Masood Khan, Pakistan’s former ambassador to the US and the United Nations, stated the assembly had “opened a diplomatic hall, constructing on earlier shuttle diplomacy, sustained communications and behind-the-scenes efforts to steer america and Iran to have interaction”.
The Committee of 4, he stated, gives a structured backchannel, enabling “a step-by-step, layered, and calibrated course of” supported by regional consensus.
Khan outlined 4 doable phases: trust-building measures, ceasefire negotiations, direct talks on advanced points together with the nuclear programme and the Strait of Hormuz, and in the end an settlement on reciprocal commitments.
Nonetheless, he cautioned that main obstacles stay. “Tehran’s calls for for conflict reparations and its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz are prone to show probably the most troublesome points to resolve,” Khan instructed Al Jazeera.
Earlier than the ministers’ assembly, Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held a 90-minute name with Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, briefing him on Islamabad’s diplomatic outreach to the US, Gulf states and different Islamic international locations to “create a conducive surroundings for peace talks”, based on an announcement from the Prime Minister’s Workplace.
China’s International Minister Wang Yi conveyed Beijing’s full backing for the initiative, whereas UN Secretary-Basic Antonio Guterres has additionally expressed help.
A senior Pakistani diplomat stated China was “very supportive” of Pakistan’s efforts, whereas the Ministry of International Affairs confirmed in an announcement on Monday that at Wang’s invitation, Dar will go to China on March 31.
“On this context, the upcoming go to will present a chance for either side to carry in-depth discussions on regional developments, in addition to bilateral and world problems with mutual curiosity,” the assertion from the ministry stated.
Dar suffered a hairline fracture in his shoulder after a fall on Sunday whereas assembly his Egyptian counterpart, based on his son, and the ministry stated his upcoming go to, regardless of medical recommendation, underscores the significance of the Pakistan-China relationship.
Positions stay far aside
The positions formally put ahead by either side stay structurally incompatible, say analysts.
Washington’s 15-point plan, transmitted to Tehran by way of Pakistan, features a one-month ceasefire, a handover by Iran of its extremely enriched uranium stockpiles, a halt to additional enrichment, curbs on Tehran’s ballistic missile programme and an finish to help for regional proxies.
Iran’s counterproposal, outlined by state-funded broadcaster Press TV, citing a senior political safety official, requires a halt to aggression and killings, concrete ensures towards recurrence, reparations, an finish to hostilities towards Iran’s allies and formal recognition of Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump instructed reporters on board Air Power One on Sunday that Iran had agreed to “most of” the 15 factors.
On Monday, Iran’s Ministry of International Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei confirmed that Tehran had acquired messages by way of intermediaries, however described the US proposals as “unrealistic, illogical and extreme”.
Baghaei appeared sceptical concerning the prospects of the Islamabad dialogue yielding a peace deal.
“The conferences that Pakistan has are a framework that they established themselves, and we didn’t take part in,” he stated. “It’s good for the international locations of the area to be involved about ending the conflict, however they need to watch out about which facet began the conflict.”
Khan, the previous diplomat, stated Iran’s scepticism ran deep. “Iran suspects that the diplomatic course of may function a smokescreen for a floor assault alongside its shoreline, adjoining islands, or the Strait of Hormuz. No magic wand can erase such a deeply entrenched belief deficit in a single day,” he stated, including that trust-building “should proceed at a brisk tempo given the devastating humanitarian and navy prices”.
Javad Heiran-Nia, director of the Persian Gulf Research Group in Tehran, stated any preliminary engagement should guarantee neither facet feels it has “surrendered”.
“The negotiation framework needs to be such that every occasion can take part with out feeling it has given in, with a give attention to low-cost and fruitful points within the quick time period,” he instructed Al Jazeera.
A sensible first step, he stated, can be a US dedication to postpone threats towards Iran’s energy crops for a sustained interval, alongside ensures from third international locations on interim preparations.
Reza Khanzadeh, an adjunct professor at George Mason College, stated the burden of compromise in the end lies with Washington.
Iran, he stated, believes any deal in need of its personal phrases may invite future assaults, making regime survival non-negotiable.
“They could be keen to compromise on the nuclear programme, the ballistic missile programme, and help for regional proxies,” he stated. “Tehran is not going to compromise on its existence. And subsequently, Iranians are keen to struggle for so long as it takes.”
He additionally pointed to mounting home strain within the US, noting Trump’s approval ranking has fallen to 36 % in current polls, pushed by rising gas prices and public concern over the conflict.
Khan recognized probably the most decisive confidence-building measure as one Washington has but to ship.
“A dedication from Washington to make sure that Israel halts its assaults on Iran and Lebanon and withdraws from just lately occupied Lebanese territory. That, nevertheless, is less complicated stated than executed,” he stated.
Strait of Hormuz and financial strain
Iran’s settlement to permit 20 Pakistani-flagged vessels by means of the Strait of Hormuz, confirmed by Dar over the weekend and acknowledged by Trump, is probably the most instant confidence-building measure on the desk.
The strait stays successfully closed to regular transport. The Worldwide Power Company has described the disruption because the worst oil shock in historical past, surpassing the crises of 1973 and 1979.
Brent crude rose above $116 per barrel in early Monday buying and selling in Asia, up greater than 50 % for the reason that conflict started on February 28. The World Commerce Group’s director-general, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, has stated world commerce is experiencing its “worst disruptions previously 80 years”.
However Sayed, who can be the founding chairman of the Islamabad-based Pakistan China Institute, stated Iran’s “closure of the Strait of Hormuz isn’t the trigger however the consequence of the battle”.
Simply as Saudi King Faisal bin Abdulaziz Al Saud weaponised oil exports in October 1973 – slicing off provides to the US and its allies in retaliation for his or her help of Israel in the course of the Arab-Israeli conflict, triggering a world vitality disaster – Iran had deployed the strait to counterbalance US-Israeli navy firepower with an financial chokehold, he argued.
Khan cautioned towards treating the strait because the centrepiece of any settlement.
“The Strait of Hormuz will stay a residual concern and can in the end must be addressed by the eight littoral states of the Persian Gulf, with regards to UNCLOS and established authorized precedents,” he stated, referring to the UN Conference on the Regulation of the Sea.
The instant precedence, he argued, was a broader halt to hostilities.
“The foremost confidence-building measure can be a pause in hostilities, a truce that gives respite to the warring sides and creates house for peacemakers,” he stated.
Heiran-Nia proposed a phased strategy.
“First agree on a restricted ceasefire and halt to assaults on civilian targets; cut back forces in crucial areas and set up confidential channels for data alternate in a second step; after which transfer to broader ceasefire negotiations,” the Tehran-based analyst stated.
Any withdrawals, he added, needs to be measurable, with mediators performing as a “secret channel” to make sure reciprocity.
The spoiler drawback
At the same time as diplomatic efforts proceed, the navy trajectory stays escalatory.
An amphibious process pressure of about 3,500 Marines and sailors led by the USS Tripoli arrived within the area on Friday, based on the US Central Command (CENTCOM).
One other 2,200 Marines are heading to the Gulf, alongside 2,000 troopers from the Military’s 82nd Airborne Division.
Trump has made clear that navy choices stay into account. Different studies recommend the Pentagon is getting ready for potential floor operations that would final weeks.
Israel, which waged its genocidal conflict on Gaza in October 2023 and has invaded southern Lebanon for the second time since, struck Tehran once more on Sunday.
US and Israeli forces killed Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and different senior leaders within the opening salvo on February 28. They later killed prime safety official Ali Larijani on March 17.
Iran’s atomic vitality organisation stated a projectile landed inside the compound of the Bushehr Nuclear Energy Plant with out inflicting injury, based on state media.
Israel’s Ambassador to the UN Danny Danon stated operations would proceed till Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities are eradicated, including that Israel was not a part of any US-Iran talks.
Khan stated, regardless of these pressures, Iran has, for now, “acquiesced to mediation and reposed their belief in Pakistan and Turkiye to maneuver the method ahead”.
However he warned of the dangers if diplomacy fails.
“The most important impediment stays the continual and unabated assaults on Iran and Lebanon by Israel, which seems to be working in overdrive. Such escalatory steps threat derailing this seminal but delicate diplomatic course of and will plunge the world right into a nuclear-triggered disaster, an final result that have to be averted in any respect prices,” he stated.
Sayed agreed, arguing that Iran has “zero belief” in US and Israeli assurances.
“The important thing query that can decide the result is who can undergo extra ache in the long term. The US and Israel can inflict ache, however they definitely can’t incur it. It’s the basic lesson of asymmetrical warfare: the weaker facet wins by not shedding,” he stated.
Heiran-Nia burdened that any settlement would require sturdy safeguards.
“Any confidence-building measures should embrace early warning mechanisms to detect and cease any makes an attempt at sabotage,” he stated. “These measures have to be short-term, reversible and reciprocal in order that any doable disruption doesn’t trigger everlasting injury.”
