Dhaka, Bangladesh — When Kazi Shawon Alam discovered that Azizur Rahman Musabbir, a fellow Bangladesh Nationalist Social gathering (BNP) activist, had been shot lifeless on January 7, it confirmed to him what many political organisers already felt forward of Bangladesh’s February 12 parliamentary elections: campaigning had turn into harmful.
Musabbir’s killing felt private. Shawon had gone to jail with Musabbir 4 instances below the federal government of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, which was extensively accused of brutal crackdowns on the political opposition, together with by way of mass arrests, killings and compelled disappearances.
That period of concern, many Bangladeshis believed, had ended with Hasina’s ouster within the widespread student-led rebellion, which pressured her to flee to India on August 5, 2024.
However whereas the interim authorities of Nobel Laureate Muhammad Yunus, who changed Hasina, isn’t accused of orchestrating any such excesses, political violence in Bangladesh is surging once more forward of the upcoming vote.
“Police say there was no political motive [behind Musabbir’s killing], however concern doesn’t disappear,” stated Shawon, a pacesetter of the BNP’s scholar wing within the capital, Dhaka. “We don’t need killings or confrontation with anybody. However the actuality is, throughout elections, violence feels inevitable.”
Bangladesh is heading to the polls for the primary time since Hasina was faraway from energy, ending greater than 15 years of hardline authorities. The Yunus interim authorities is overseeing a vote that coincides with a referendum on state reforms, with about 120 million voters eligible to forged ballots within the South Asian nation of roughly 170 million folks.
But, a collection of killings, threats and avenue clashes is reviving fears of a return to previous election-season violence, which Bangladesh has routinely grappled with since its 1971 independence from Pakistan.
Throughout Bangladesh’s 300 constituencies, the BNP is main a coalition of 10 like-minded events. In the meantime, the Jamaat-e-Islami, also called the Jamaat, is heading a separate 11-party alliance, which incorporates the Nationwide Citizen Social gathering, a gaggle shaped by college students who led the anti-Hasina motion.
Outdoors these blocs, the Islami Andolan Bangladesh, which broke away from the Jamaat-led alliance, and the Jatiya Social gathering, a longtime ally of Hasina’s Awami League (AL), are contesting independently. The AL itself is absent from the election as Yunus’s administration banned its political actions in Might 2025.
However whereas these events symbolize numerous ideological platforms, a spate of killings and violent assaults throughout the nation is sparing none of them.
Focused killings, violence rise
Hasan Mollah, 42, an area BNP chief in Keraniganj on the outskirts of Dhaka, was shot on Friday, January 23, whereas sitting at a neighbourhood election workplace. He died a day later in a Dhaka hospital, with the motive for the killing unclear.
Mollah was the sixteenth political activist killed because the Bangladesh Election Fee introduced the election schedule on December 11, based on native media stories.
Days earlier, a ward-level chief of the Jamaat, 65-year-old Anwarullah, was killed at his residence in Dhaka’s West Rajabazar neighbourhood throughout what police described as a housebreaking.
The deaths adopted the December killing of Sharif Osman Hadi, a youth chief who emerged as a outstanding face of the 2024 protests and was getting ready to contest a parliamentary seat in central Dhaka.
Hadi was shot on December 12 by gunmen on a motorbike. He died on December 18 in a Singapore hospital, together with his demise resulting in unrest and renewed safety issues nationwide.
Not one of the killings has been formally labeled as politically motivated. But, for social gathering activists, that distinction gives little reassurance.
Native media and rights teams say BNP leaders and activists account for 13 of the 16 deaths recorded because the election schedule was introduced. The others embody Hadi, Jamaat chief Anwarullah, and a pacesetter of the banned AL youth wing, Jubo League.
Seven of the victims have been shot lifeless, underscoring the widespread presence of unlawful firearms, stories Prothom Alo, a Bangla every day.
Authorities information present that of the three,619 weapons looted from safety forces throughout the 2024 rebellion, about 1,360 stay unaccounted for, together with a big amount of ammunition, regardless of safety forces recovering greater than 60 p.c of the stolen arms forward of the polls.
In the meantime, at the least 62 election-related clashes have been recorded nationwide because the election schedule was introduced, based on a report by the Human Rights Help Society (HRSS).
For a lot of Bangladeshis, these deaths revive bitter reminiscences of many years of political violence.
A well-recognized historical past
A comparative mapping by the Bangladesh Peace Observatory (BPO), an election-violence monitoring initiative run by the Dhaka-based Centre for Options, reveals broad variations in election-period deaths over time.
Utilizing a regular pre- and post-election window, the BPO recorded 49 deaths across the 1991 election, 21 across the 2008 vote, and 142 across the 2014 polls, an election boycotted by the primary opposition BNP and Jamaat.
Subsequent elections in 2018 and 2023, held below Hasina’s authorities, have been extensively described by rights teams and opposition events as one-sided, with restricted contestation.
Violence, nonetheless, persevered. Forward of the 2018 election, United Nations human rights specialists documented 47 incidents of election-related violence in 4 days, leaving eight folks lifeless and greater than 560 injured.
Through the 2014 vote, at the least 21 folks have been killed on polling day, and voting was halted at round 400 centres.
This historical past, stated analysts, helps clarify why concern stays excessive as Bangladesh heads into its first genuinely aggressive election since Hasina’s elimination from energy.
Threats from inside
In some constituencies, the hazard comes from inside political events themselves.
Within the central district of Tangail, Tusher Khan, a 24-year-old BNP scholar wing chief, stated he filed a grievance with native police after receiving threats from a senior BNP determine aligned with a rival candidate.
“They advised me they might break my legs and arms if I stayed lively within the marketing campaign,” Khan advised Al Jazeera.
The dispute centres on a seat the place a former BNP minister is working as an impartial towards a BNP-nominated candidate. Khan stated the intimidation was geared toward maintaining rival supporters away from polling centres on election day.
Abdul Latif, the native BNP chief accused of issuing the threats, acknowledged confronting Khan, however dismissed the grievance. “He defamed our candidate,” Latif stated. “We is not going to spare anybody who provokes us.”
Based on Prothom Alo, 92 BNP leaders stay within the race as insurgent candidates throughout 79 constituencies. Jamaat has one insurgent candidate.
Analysts say constituencies with insurgent contenders are extra vulnerable to violence forward of the vote.
Native media reported clashes amongst supporters of BNP candidates in 4 districts on Saturday alone, leaving greater than 100 folks injured.
BNP vs Jamaat: Clashes spill onto the streets
Political tensions have more and more spilled into public view as campaigning intensifies.
A conflict broke out in Dhaka’s Mirpur space on the night of January 20, leaving a few dozen folks injured, a day earlier than formal campaigning started, after two feminine activists of Jamaat “by the way” went to a BNP chief’s condo as a part of electioneering.
Jamaat chief Shafiqur Rahman is contesting the parliamentary seat from that densely populated neighbourhood towards a BNP candidate. Since then, residents say concern has lingered as rival activists preserve a visual marketing campaign presence within the locality.
“That is actually a daunting state of affairs for odd voters like us,” stated Abdullah Al Mamun, who lives about 500 metres (547 yards) from the location of the violence. “We don’t need clashes. We simply wish to vote peacefully.”
BNP and Jamaat leaders have accused one another of intimidation, and have each criticised the Election Fee for failing to behave decisively.
“We concern violence as election day approaches,” stated Jubaer Ahmed, a Jamaat chief. “Our activists are being intimidated throughout the nation, our campaigns are being obstructed, and in Mirpur, our girls activists have been attacked.”
Nevertheless, from the BNP aspect, Saimum Parvez, a celebration chief concerned in election coordination, alleged that Jamaat activists have been gathering voter info illegally.
He additionally stated that current killings of political activists shouldn’t be dismissed as inside disputes. “A few of these could also be focused killings meant to disrupt the election,” he advised Al Jazeera.
He accused Jamaat of spreading on-line disinformation, which is spilling out into offline tensions, and warned that any notion of a “managed election” would solely enhance the chance of violence.
A competition, but more durable to regulate
Police say that avenue confrontations have gotten more durable to stop nationwide as political exercise expands.
A police officer in Kurigram, a northern district close to the Indian border, stated that rival BNP and Jamaat teams got here head to head throughout door-to-door campaigning at two places following Friday prayers, forcing police to intervene.
“After a few years, elections really feel like a competition once more,” the officer advised Al Jazeera, talking on situation of anonymity. “Extra odd persons are getting concerned, however that additionally means confrontation dangers have elevated. Police can’t be all over the place directly.”
AHM Shahadat Hossain, extra inspector common (media and public relations) at Bangladesh Police headquarters, stated authorities are intently monitoring the regulation and order state of affairs forward of the vote.
“General, the state of affairs is below management,” he stated, including that additional precautions have been put in place in weak areas.
Hossain acknowledged that some weapons looted throughout the July 2024 unrest stay unrecovered. “Stopping their use in election-related violence is a high precedence,” he stated.
About 900,000 personnel, together with 108,730 members of the navy, might be deployed from February 8 to 14 to make sure safety for the elections, based on Jahangir Alam, the appearing head of the Ministry of House Affairs.
Authorities say that greater than half of the nation’s 42,761 polling centres, which have been labeled as dangerous, will obtain the majority of extra safety forces.
Addressing the current killings and clashes, Hossain stated police are investigating incidents as prison acts, no matter political affiliation. “These concerned will face authorized motion,” he stated, including that police would act “professionally, impartially and firmly” to guard lives and voting rights.
Officers within the workplace of interim chief Yunus say violence to this point stays decrease than in previous nationwide elections, citing tighter coordination amongst safety businesses.
Whereas briefing overseas diplomats in Dhaka on Sunday, Chief Election Commissioner A M M Nasir Uddin stated the election physique would put in place strong safety measures to make sure a peaceable vote.
Because the briefing was below approach, native media reported a conflict between Jamaat and BNP supporters over electioneering in Lalmonirhat, a northern district close to the Indian border, which left about 20 folks injured.
From exile in New Delhi, former Prime Minister Hasina on Saturday urged her supporters to overthrow the Yunus-led authorities, injecting additional political pressure forward of the vote.
Towards this backdrop, election watchdogs stay involved in regards to the credibility of the February 12 vote.
Badiul Alam Majumdar, the top of the citizen platform SHUJAN, warned that rising intolerance may undermine the method. “The true problem,” he stated, “is whether or not official assurances can overcome concern rooted not solely in present occasions, however in historical past”.
