⭐ India’s Exports Hold Steady Amid US Tariffs; New Markets Help Offset Slowdown: SBI Research

India’s Export Outlook Steady Despite Higher US Tariffs; New Markets Help Offset Slowdown: SBI Research. India’s export performance remained stable during a period of global economic uncertainty, according to a new assessment by SBI Research, shared via news agency ANI. Despite higher tariffs from the United States and fluctuations in global demand, India recorded a modest but steady rise in merchandise exports in the first half of FY26.

⭐ Exports Rise 2.9% in April–September FY26

Between April and September 2025–26, India’s merchandise exports reached $220 billion, up from $214 billion a year earlier — a growth of 2.9%, as per the report.

Exports to the United States grew 13% to $45 billion during this period. However, September shipments saw a sharp 12% year-on-year decline, highlighting uneven demand trends.

The US remains India’s largest export market, but its share has reduced gradually—from July 2025 levels to 15% in September 2025.

⭐ Sectoral Trends: Marine Products & Precious Stones Show Mixed Performance

SBI Research highlights significant variations across product groups:

• The US share in India’s marine products fell from 20% (FY25) to 15% in September.
• The US share in precious stones dropped sharply from 37% to just 6%.
• Despite these drops, marine products and ready-made cotton garments posted overall growth in the April–September window.

The decline in market share does not necessarily indicate reduced export competitiveness; the report notes signs of indirect routing of goods through other countries.

⭐ India Diversifies Export Destinations

India’s export basket has become broader and more geographically diversified, with increased shares in:

• UAE
• China
• Vietnam
• Japan
• Hong Kong
• Bangladesh
• Sri Lanka
• Nigeria

SBI Research suggests these shifts may partially indicate re-routing through alternate destinations, especially in categories facing higher US tariffs.

For instance:

• Australia’s share in US imports of precious stones rose from 2% to 9%
• Hong Kong’s share increased from 1% to 2%

⭐ US Tariffs Impact Textiles, Jewelry & Seafood

Higher tariffs under the current US trade policy have affected several Indian export categories, notably:

• Textiles
• Jewelry
• Seafood (especially shrimp)

To support affected sectors, the Indian government approved ₹45,060 crore in assistance, including ₹20,000 crore dedicated to credit guarantees.

⭐ Rupee Under Pressure But RBI Stays Calm

The rupee weakened to 89.49 against the US dollar on Friday amid global market turbulence.
ANI reported that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) reiterated it does not defend a specific exchange rate, and analysts view the decline as a temporary adjustment rather than a policy-driven shift.

⭐ Current Account Deficit Narrows

India’s current account deficit (CAD) improved to 0.2% of GDP in Q1 FY26, compared to 0.9% in the same quarter last year. The improvement was driven by strong:

• Services exports
• Remittances

SBI Research expects the CAD to widen slightly in the next two quarters before strengthening again toward the end of the fiscal year.

For FY26, SBI projects:

• CAD at 1.0–1.3% of GDP
• Balance of Payments (BoP) gap of up to $10 billion

⭐ FAQs

Q1: How did India’s exports perform in April–September FY26?

Exports grew by 2.9% to reach $220 billion, according to SBI Research.

Q2: Are US tariffs affecting India’s exports?

Yes, higher tariffs have impacted sectors like textiles, jewelry, and seafood, but diversification into other markets helped maintain overall growth.

Q3: Which countries saw increased imports from India?

The UAE, China, Vietnam, Hong Kong, Japan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Nigeria registered higher shares.

Q4: Why did the rupee weaken recently?

The rupee fell to 89.49 due to global financial volatility. The RBI stated it does not defend a specific level.

Q5: What is India’s projected current account deficit for FY26?

SBI Research estimates a full-year CAD of 1.0–1.3% of GDP.

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