Doha, Qatar:
Israel’s killing of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar dealt a huge blow to the Palestinian group, and while it leaves a void at the top of the movement, its fighters remain determined to fight.
Sinwar orchestrated the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel that sparked the Gaza war, and became Hamas leader in August after the death of his predecessor, Ismail Haniyeh.
Although Israel hailed Sinwar’s killing as a major victory, analysts say Hamas could use his legacy to mobilize a new generation of fighters who grew up suffering the consequences of Israel’s retaliatory war.
Here’s a look at what may come next for Hamas.
How hard a blow?
Confirming Sinwar’s death in a video statement on Friday, Hamas official Khalil al-Haya said the group mourned the loss of its “great leader”.
Sinwar’s killing was not just an “extremely symbolic event” but created a “leadership vacuum in this highly networked organization,” said Middle East analyst Andreas Krieg of King’s College London.
His death comes just over two months after the death in Iran of Hamas political leader Ismail Haniyeh.
Hamas and Iran have blamed Israel for Haniya’s death, but Israel has not commented.
Krieg said differences had emerged between the political leadership of Hamas, mostly in exile in Qatar, and the military and operational wings in Gaza.
In July, Israel also said it had killed Hamas military commander Mohammed Deif in Gaza, which Hamas denied.
“The different cells of Hamas will continue to fight, but there is a vacuum at the core of the movement, and that will make coordination very difficult,” Krieg said.
James Dorsey of the National University of Singapore’s Middle East Institute said Sinwar was an “outstanding” figure within Hamas who enjoyed “broad support within the movement from both the political and military wings”.
Who could replace Sinwar?
Since his predecessor’s death, Sinwar has emerged from a field of contenders for the Hamas leadership that includes relatively moderates based outside Gaza, such as Musa Abu Marzouk, an adviser and negotiator considered close to Haniyeh.
Dorsey said other exiled Hamas figures such as Qatar-based Haya, close to Sinwar and a lead negotiator in failed Gaza truce talks and a hostage exchange, could again become contenders for the top job.
Other exiled leaders who could take over, he said, include Khaled Meshaal, who was Hamas chief until he was replaced by Haniya in 2017.
Sinwar’s election as leader over members of his political wing in August was widely seen as a realignment of the movement around the armed struggle, with an emphasis on the war in Gaza.
Krieg said “the next leader will inevitably be someone from the operational level”.
If the leadership is handed down to a man on the battlefield, one name has emerged as the favorite: that of Sinwar’s younger brother, Mohammed Sinwar.
Krieg said the brother “doesn’t have the charismatic leadership appeal that Yahya had. But he has a good reputation … as a belligerent and a fighter.”
Can Hamas recover?
In his defiant statement on Friday, Haya said Sinwar’s death would help strengthen the movement, adding that his killing placed him among the “leaders and symbols of the movement that preceded him”.
Krieg said that despite the “tactical, operational defeat” for Hamas with the killing of its leader, Sinwar’s death “will not change the armed resistance against Israel in Gaza.”
Dorsey said Hamas is a movement that “has generally proven to be very resilient.”
“The history of Hamas… is the history of Israel killing its leaders. Yahya Sinwar joins the list,” he added.
The slain leader’s legacy will “obviously” be tied to the legacy of the Oct. 7 attack, Dorsey said.
But whether the war sparked by the attack can continue to swell Hamas’ ranks has as much to do with the sheer levels of desperation in Gaza as it does with Sinwar.
“This is a generation that has lost all hope… certainly in Gaza. If you have no hope, you have nothing and nowhere to go, nothing to lose,” Dorsey said.
(Except for the headline, this story was not edited by NDTV staff and was published by a syndicated channel.)
