New Delhi, India – When US President Donald Trump introduced a commerce deal with India on Monday this week, he declared that New Delhi would pivot away from Russian vitality as a part of the settlement.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump stated, had promised to cease shopping for Russian oil, and as an alternative purchase crude from the US and from Venezuela, whose president, Nicolas Maduro, was kidnapped by US particular forces in early January. Since then, the US has successfully taken management of Venezuela’s mammoth oil business.
In return, Trump dialled down commerce tariffs on Indian items from an general 50 % to only 18 %. Half of that fifty % tariff was levied final yr as punishment for India shopping for Russian oil, which the White Home maintains is financing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s warfare in Ukraine.
However since Monday, India has not publicly confirmed that it has dedicated to both ceasing its buy of Russian oil or embracing Venezuelan crude, analysts observe. Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, informed reporters on Tuesday that Russia had acquired no indication of this from India, both.
And switching from Russian to Venezuelan oil can be removed from easy. A cocktail of different elements – shocks to the vitality market, prices, geography, and the traits of various sorts of oil – will complicate New Delhi’s selections about its sourcing of oil, they are saying.
So, can India actually dump Russian oil? And might Venezuelan crude substitute it?
What’s Trump’s plan?
Trump has been pressuring India to cease shopping for Russian oil for months. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the US and European Union positioned an oil value cap on Russian crude in a bid to restrict Russia’s capacity to finance the warfare.
In consequence, different international locations together with India started shopping for massive portions of low-cost Russian oil. India, which earlier than the warfare sourced solely 2.5 % of its oil from Russia, turned the second-largest client of Russian oil after China. It presently sources round 30 % of its oil from Russia.
Final yr, Trump doubled commerce tariffs on Indian items from 25 % to 50 % as punishment for this. Later within the yr, Trump additionally imposed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil corporations – and threatened secondary sanctions in opposition to international locations and entities that commerce with these companies.
For the reason that abduction of Maduro by US forces in early January, Trump has successfully taken over the Venezuelan oil sector, controlling gross sales money flows.
Venezuela additionally has the most important confirmed oil reserves on the earth, estimated at 303 billion barrels, greater than 5 occasions bigger than these of the US, the world’s largest oil producer.
However whereas getting India to purchase Venezuelan oil is sensible from the US’s perspective, analysts say this may very well be operationally messy.
How a lot oil does India import from Russia?
India presently imports practically 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude, in line with analytics firm Kpler. Below Trump’s mounting stress, that’s decrease than the typical 1.21 million bpd in December 2025 and greater than 2 million bpd in mid-2025.
One barrel is equal to 159 litres (42 gallons) of crude oil. As soon as refined, a barrel usually produces about 73 litres (19 gallons) of petrol for a automotive. Oil can also be refined to provide all kinds of merchandise, from jet gasoline to home items together with plastics and even lotions.
Has India stopped Russian oil purchases?
India has lowered the quantity of oil it buys from Russia over the previous yr, however it has not stopped shopping for it altogether.
Below rising stress from Trump, final August, Indian officers referred to as out the “hypocrisy” of the US and EU pressuring New Delhi to again off from Russian crude.
“In actual fact, India started importing from Russia as a result of conventional provides had been diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the battle,” Randhir Jaiswal, India’s Overseas Ministry spokesperson, stated then. He added that India’s choice to import Russian oil was “meant to make sure predictable and inexpensive vitality prices to the Indian client”.
Regardless of this, Indian refiners, presently the second-largest group of patrons of Russian oil after China, are reportedly winding up their purchases after clearing present scheduled orders.
Main refiners like Hindustan Petroleum Company Ltd (HPCL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL), and HPCL-Mittal Power Ltd (HMEL) halted buying from Russia following the US sanctions in opposition to Russian oil producers final yr.
Different gamers like Indian Oil Company (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Company, and Reliance Industries will quickly cease their purchases.
What occurs if India abruptly stops shopping for Russian oil?
Even when India needed to cease importing Russian oil altogether, analysts argue it might be extraordinarily pricey to take action.
In September final yr, India’s oil and petroleum minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, informed reporters that it would additionally sharply push up vitality costs and gasoline inflation. “The world will face critical penalties if the provides are disrupted. The world can’t afford to maintain Russia off the oil market,” Puri stated.
Analysts are likely to agree. “An entire cessation of Indian purchases of Russian oil can be a serious disruption. A right away halt would spike international costs and threaten India’s financial development,” stated George Voloshin, an impartial vitality analyst primarily based in Paris.
Russian oil would possible be diverted extra closely in direction of China and into “shadow” fleets of tankers that ship sanctioned oil secretly by flying false flags and switching off location tools, Voloshin informed Al Jazeera. “Mainstream tanker demand would shift towards the Atlantic Basin, almost certainly rising international freight charges consequently,” he famous.
Sumit Pokharna, vp at Kotak Securities, famous that Indian refineries have reported sturdy margins within the final two years, majorly benefitting from the discounted Russian crude.
“In the event that they transfer to higher-costing, just like the US or Venezuela, then uncooked materials value would enhance, and that might squeeze their margins,” he informed Al Jazeera. “If it goes past management, they could need to go the surplus onto shoppers.”
Can India cease shopping for Russian oil altogether?
It could not have the ability to. Considered one of India’s two personal refiners, Nayara Power, is majority-Russian-owned and below heavy Western sanctions. The Russian vitality agency Rosneft holds a 49.13 % stake within the firm, which operates a 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery in India’s Gujarat, PM Modi’s dwelling state.
Nayara is the second-largest importer of Russian crude, shopping for about 471,000 barrels per day in January this yr, accounting for practically 40 % of Russian provides to India.
Its plant has relied solely on Russian crude since European Union sanctions had been imposed on the corporate final July.
Nayara just isn’t planning to load Russian oil in April because it shuts its refinery for greater than a month for upkeep from April 10, in line with Reuters.
Pokharna stated the way forward for Nayara hangs within the steadiness, with the US unlikely to grant India an overt exemption for the Russia-backed firm to import crude.
Can India change to Venezuelan oil?
India has been a serious client of Venezuelan oil prior to now. At its peak, in 2019, India imported $7.2bn of oil, accounting for slightly below 7 % of complete imports. That stopped after the US slapped sanctions on Venezuelan oil, however some officers of the government-owned Oil and Pure Gasoline Company are nonetheless stationed within the Latin American nation.
Now, main Indian refiners have stated they’re open to receiving Venezuelan oil once more, however provided that it’s a viable choice.
For one factor, Venezuela is roughly twice as removed from India as Russia and 5 occasions additional than the Center East, which means a lot increased freight prices.
Venezuelan oil is costlier as effectively. “Russian Urals [a medium-heavy crude blend] has been buying and selling at a wide-ranging low cost of about $10-20 per barrel to Brent, whereas Venezuelan Merey presently presents a smaller low cost of round $5-8 per barrel,” Voloshin informed Al Jazeera.
“Importing from Venezuela and forgoing the Russian low cost can be a pricey affair for India,” stated Pokharna. “From transportation value to forgoing reductions, it may value India $6-8 extra per barrel – and that could be a enormous enhance within the importing invoice.”
Total, an entire pivot away from Russia may increase India’s import invoice by $9bn to $11bn – an quantity roughly equal to India’s federal well being finances – per yr, in line with Kpler.
“Venezuelan crude have to be discounted by not less than $10 to $12 per barrel to be aggressive,” argued Voloshin. “This deeper low cost is critical to offset the a lot increased freight prices, elevated insurance coverage premiums for the longer Atlantic voyage, and the considerably increased operational bills required to course of Venezuela’s extra-heavy high-sulfur crude.”
With out deeper reductions, the longer journey and sophisticated dealing with make Venezuelan oil costlier on a delivered foundation, he added.
One other main concern is that many Indian refiners merely don’t have the services to course of very heavy Venezuelan oil.
Venezuelan crude is a heavy, bitter oil, thick and viscous like molasses, with a excessive sulphur content material requiring advanced, specialised refineries to course of it into gasoline. Solely a small variety of Indian refineries are outfitted to deal with it.
“[Venezuelan oil’s heaviness] makes it an choice just for advanced refineries, leaving out older and smaller refineries,” Pokharna informed Al Jazeera. “The shift is operationally troublesome and would require mixing with costlier mild crudes.”
Then there may be the query of availability. At the moment, Venezuela produces barely 1,000,000 barrels per day when pushed to its restrict. Even when all manufacturing was despatched to India, it might not match the full Russian oil import.
The place else may India purchase oil?
India’s Minister Puri has stated that New Delhi is trying to diversify sourcing choices from practically 40 international locations.
As India has lowered Russian imports, it has elevated them from Center Japanese nations and different international locations within the Group of the Petroleum Exporting Nations (OPEC). Now, whereas Russia accounts for practically 27 % share in India’s oil imports, OPEC nations, led by Iraq and Saudi Arabia, contribute 53 %.
Reeling from Trump’s commerce warfare, India has additionally elevated purchases of US oil. American crude imports to India rose by 92 % from April to November in 2025 to almost 13 million tons, in comparison with 7.1 million in the identical interval in 2024.
Nevertheless, India can be competing for these provides with the European Union, which has pledged to spend $750bn by 2028 on US vitality and nuclear merchandise.
In the meantime, for Venezuela to return to increased manufacturing, Caracas wants political stability, adjustments in international funding and oil legal guidelines, and to clear money owed. That can take time, specialists say.
