Voters remain largely divided on whether they prefer Republicans Donald Trump or a democrat Kamala Harris on tackling key economic issues, though Harris gets slightly better marks on items like taxes on the middle class, according to a new survey.
A majority of registered voters in the Associated Press and NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll describe the economy as poor. About 7 in 10 say the nation is headed in the wrong direction.
But the findings confirm that Trump has lost what had been an advantage on the economy, which many voters say is the most important issue this election season above abortion, immigration, crime and foreign affairs.
“Do I trust Trump on the economy? No. I believe he will cut taxes for his friends like Elon Musk,” said Janice Tosto, a 59-year-old Philadelphia woman who identifies as an independent.
An AP-NORC poll conducted in September found that neither Harris nor Trump has a clear edge on managing “the economy and jobs.” But that poll asked more specific questions about whether voters trust Trump or Harris to do better on housing costs, jobs and unemployment, taxes on the middle class, grocery and gas costs and tariffs.
The poll found that 46 percent of voters favor Harris on middle-class taxes, compared to 35 percent for Trump. Harris also has a slight home price advantage. Voters are almost evenly split on whether Trump or Harris is better on the prices of daily necessities like groceries and gasoline, and neither candidate has an edge on jobs and unemployment.
Voters, meanwhile, were slightly more likely to favor Trump on the issue of tariffs, which were defined in the poll as taxes on imported goods.
Pollster Amber Moody, 36, of Halifax, Va., said she trusts Trump — and Republicans in general — a lot more on economic issues.
“It seems to me that in my lifetime, every time a Democrat takes office, the economy suffers,” she said. “Prices are going up, taxes are going up and the national debt is going up. Although I don’t approve of everything Donald Trump says and does, I believe he is the better choice.
VOTERS SEE HARRIS MORE FAVORABLE THAN TRUMP
Voters’ impressions of Harris and Trump have remained stable over the past month.
About half of voters have a very or somewhat favorable opinion of Harris, while 46% view her unfavorably. Meanwhile, about 4 in 10 voters have a favorable view of Trump, and about 6 in 10 have a negative view. Trump’s favorability has been remarkably consistent over the past few months, even after two assassination attempts and a felony conviction.
Compared to last month, opinions of the candidates were stable among blacks and Hispanics, as well as among men and women. Black voters’ views of Harris are overwhelmingly positive — about three-quarters have a favorable view of the Democratic nominee — and their view of Trump is negative, with about 2 in 10 having a favorable view. Hispanic voters also view Harris more favorably than Trump, though the margin is narrower: About 6 in 10 Hispanic voters have a favorable view of Harris and about 4 in 10 have a favorable view of Trump.
The survey also shows a gender gap in the views of the candidates heading into the final days of the election.
About half of female voters have a favorable impression of Harris, while only about a third view Trump favorably. Among men, about half have a favorable opinion of Harris and a similar share have a favorable opinion of Trump.
VOTERS ARE PESSIMISTS ABOUT THE ECONOMY AND THE COUNTRY
In general, voters remain pessimistic about the state of the economy and the general direction of the country.
About half of voters describe the nation’s economy as very or somewhat bad. Republicans and independents are more likely than Democrats to express this view. However, there are modest signs of improvement compared to an AP-NORC survey from October 2023, when about 7 in 10 American adults thought the U.S. economy was in bad shape. The number was even worse in October 2022, when nearly 8 in 10 Americans described the economy as bad.
About two-thirds of voters also say the country is moving in the wrong direction, while roughly one-third say things are moving in the right direction. Pessimism on this issue has been fairly consistent over the past three years, even though nearly 8 in 10 Americans thought the U.S. was headed in the wrong direction a year ago. U.S. adults were similarly gloomy just before the last presidential election, according to an October 2020 AP-NORC poll, when roughly 7 in 10 Americans thought the country was headed in the wrong direction.
Jeffrey Trimble, a 62-year-old Democrat from Hermitage, Pennsylvania, said he was increasingly optimistic about the direction of the nation after “four years of hell” during Trump’s first term.
“We’ve got really good people at the top of our government who have vision, they’re kind, they’re trying to get us back on track,” Trimble said.
Overall, the new poll highlights signs of trouble for both candidates as they work to assemble winning coalitions.
Younger voters are significantly more pessimistic about the health of the economy than older voters, and that’s not good news for Harris, whose party has long relied on strong support from voters of color and young people.
Voters under 45 are also slightly less likely than voters over 45 to trust Harris to handle housing costs or grocery and gas costs, though that doesn’t mean they prefer Trump. Substantial shares of younger voters — about a quarter on both issues — distrust either candidate or both equally.
TRUMP’S STRONGEST PROBLEM REMAINS IMMIGRATION
Meanwhile, on other issues, Trump’s most consistent asset continues to be immigration.
Forty-five percent of voters say he is the better candidate to handle immigration issues, compared to about 4 in 10 who prefer Harris. About half of white voters trust Trump more on immigration, while about a third say the same about Harris. Hispanic voters are divided on which candidate they prefer to handle immigration.
Harris’ strongest issues are abortion policy, with about half of voters saying she would be better on that issue, compared with about 3 in 10 for Trump; climate change, where about half prefer her leadership and about 2 in 10 prefer Trump’s; and election integrity, where about half prefer Harris and about 3 in 10 prefer Trump.
The candidates are almost evenly matched on crime. Foreign policy is also a key issue this fall, although neither candidate has a clear advantage on the situation in the Middle East. However, there are some signs of weakness on the Harris issue within her own party. Only about two-thirds of Democratic voters say Harris would be the better candidate to handle the situation in the Middle East. Among Republicans, about 8 in 10 say Trump would be better.
Diana Campbell Williams, a 72-year-old Democrat who lives in Auburn, Michigan, cites foreign affairs as her top issue.
She says she is concerned about Russia, Iran and North Korea. She doesn’t like Trump’s questioning of NATO and his relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
“I trust Harris more,” Williams said. “I feel like she knows more about what’s going on and I prefer the people she’s going to be surrounded by after the election.”
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