After midnight on February 5, 2026, the ultimate remaining nuclear arms management settlement between the USA and Russia, often called the New Strategic Arms Discount Treaty (New START), will expire.
This can lead to a state of affairs the place, for the primary time for the reason that early Seventies, there can be no legally binding limits on American and Russian strategic nuclear forces.
The top of New START will mark the tip of the final remaining Chilly Conflict treaty amid unstable U.S.-Russia relations.
Contemplating the state of affairs to be actually grave, “the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists” has moved its metaphorical Doomsday Clock one other notch towards “midnight” of worldwide disaster. It now sits nearer than it ever has: 85 seconds to midnight, the closest the Clock has ever been to midnight in its historical past.
Alexandra Bell, president and CEO, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, has mentioned: “The Doomsday Clock’s message can’t be clearer. Catastrophic dangers are on the rise, cooperation is on the decline, and we’re working out of time. Change is each mandatory and doable, however the international group should demand swift motion from their leaders.”
The Doomsday Clock time is yearly decided by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ Science and Safety Board (SASB) in session with its Board of Sponsors, which incorporates eight Nobel Laureates. Main elements in 2026 included rising nuclear threats, disruptive applied sciences resembling synthetic intelligence (AI), a number of organic safety considerations, and the continued local weather disaster.
The Clock’s time modified most just lately in January 2025, when the Doomsday Clock was set at 89 seconds to midnight.
After all, in its assertion, DOOMSDAY Clock has mentioned many harmful international developments, together with local weather change, the misuse of biotechnology, the potential risk of synthetic intelligence, and different apocalyptic risks. However in its checklist of risks, “the dangers of nuclear warfare” determine prominently.
In response to Jon B. Wolfsthal, director of world threat on the Federation of American Scientists (FAS) and SASB member, Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, “In 2025, it was nearly not possible to establish a nuclear situation that received higher. Extra states are relying extra intently on nuclear weapons, a number of states are overtly speaking about utilizing nuclear weapons for not solely deterrence however for coercion. Tons of of billions are being spent to modernize and broaden nuclear arsenals everywhere in the world, and an increasing number of non-nuclear states are contemplating whether or not they need to purchase their very own nuclear weapons or are hedging their nuclear bets. As a substitute of stoking the fires of the nuclear arms competitors, nuclear states are lowering their very own safety and placing the complete planet in danger.
“Leaders of all states should relearn the teachings of the Chilly Conflict – nobody wins a nuclear arms race, and the one approach to cut back nuclear risks is thru a binding settlement to restrict the dimensions and form of their nuclear arsenals”.
It might be famous that the New START Treaty was signed by then-US President Barack Obama and his Russian counterpart, Dmitry Medvedev, in Prague on April 8, 2010. It entered into drive the next yr.
This treaty outdated a 2002 treaty that had obligated Russia and the USA to cut back their operationally deployed, strategic nuclear warheads to between 1,700 and a pair of,200 by the tip of 2012.
The New START Treaty referred to as for additional reductions in long-range nuclear weapons and supplied larger specificity about various kinds of launchers. The brand new limits had been:
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700 deployed intercontinental and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (along with heavy bombers)
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1,550 nuclear warheads deployed on these platforms, and
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800 launchers (each deployed and non-deployed).
Reportedly, these reductions had been achieved by February 5, 2018.
The treaty supplied for twice-yearly exchanges of knowledge and ongoing mutual notification concerning the motion of strategic nuclear forces. It additionally mandated short-notice, on-site inspections of missiles, warheads, and launchers lined by the treaty, offering useful and stabilizing insights into the opposite’s nuclear deployments.
Initially signed for 10 years, the New START Treaty was prolonged for a last five-year interval in 2021.
It might be famous that Russia formally suspended its participation within the verification processes in February 2023 on account of tensions over the warfare in Ukraine. It halted on-site inspections and knowledge exchanges, successfully ending the treaty’s verification regime years earlier than its scheduled expiration.
Nevertheless, you will need to be aware that, regardless of disallowing the verification measures, Moscow claimed it will nonetheless abide by the numerical limits envisaged below the treaty. And this, all advised, helped the U.S. and Russia to keep away from severe or harmful nuclear face-offs.
It continued to offer either side with essential perception into the opposite’s actions, thereby imposing constraints that led to the world’s nuclear stockpile shrinking from round 70,400 warheads in 1986 to 12,500 at present, first by way of the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) after which by way of New START.
These restraints might not be there from tomorrow.
And meaning Russia and the U.S. may improve their deployed warheads by 60% and 110%, respectively, inside a matter of months.
In any case, each have the capability to load a bigger variety of warheads on their missiles and bombers than they presently do. By doing so, each international locations may successfully double their deployed strategic nuclear arsenals.
What is claimed to be additional ominous for the worldwide strategic atmosphere is the U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to speed up America’s superior missile defence capabilities, together with towards nuclear weapons, below the ‘Golden Dome’ on the one hand and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s revelation of two new weapons methods – the Burevestnik nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered cruise missile and the Poseidon nuclear-armed, nuclear-powered undersea drone.
Some consultants are additionally nervous concerning the timing of New START’s demise, which comes forward of the 2026 Evaluate Convention of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) within the spring, as a result of it will sign that as an alternative of exhibiting restraint and demonstrating progress on disarmament and arms management, nuclear-weapon states are simply doing the other.
That would deepen divisions between nuclear and non-nuclear states and weaken the credibility of the NPT.
Nevertheless, there may be nonetheless some room for optimism that issues may stay below management. Russian President Putin has proposed extending observance of New START’s numerical limits past the treaty’s expiration.
Consultants say that if President Trump is fascinated by “denuclearization,” as he claims, he may construct on Putin’s proposal and discover widespread floor.
Final September, Putin proposed that the 2 international locations conform to mutually observe New START’s three numerical limits—700 deployed strategic ballistic missiles and nuclear-capable heavy bombers, 800 deployed or non-deployed strategic ballistic missile launchers and nuclear-capable heavy bombers, and 1,550 warheads on deployed strategic supply methods—for one further yr, that’s, till February 2027.
Then, in November, a Russian overseas ministry official urged that Moscow was keen to voluntarily prolong the bounds additional.
On his half, President Trump had mentioned in July final yr that he didn’t need New START to run out. When Putin spoke about extending New START, Trump advised reporters, “It appears like a good suggestion to me.”
Nevertheless, in November, Trump was mentioned to have difficult issues by elevating the China issue. He mentioned that negotiations on any future nuclear arms management agreements should embrace China.
As of now, he has caught to that place; his final assertion on the difficulty – a solution to a question from the New York Instances – is that “If it ( new START) expires, it expires,” and that he would favor a “higher” alternative that will ideally embrace China.
However then there isn’t a precedent for any trilateral nuclear management or disarmament negotiations. In addition to, although rising, China’s arsenal remains to be lower than 12% the dimensions of the U.S. arsenal and fewer than 11% the dimensions of Russia’s.
Considered thus, the one practical approach to preserve the spirit of the brand new START alive is to construct on Putin’s concept of curbing a nuclear arms race and to counsel enhancements, if any. Russian officers say that they’re ready for the response from Washington.
The ball, due to this fact, lies in Trump’s court docket.
- Writer and veteran journalist Prakash Nanda is Chairman of the Editorial Board of the EurAsian Instances and has been commenting on politics, overseas coverage, and strategic affairs for practically three a long time. He’s a former Nationwide Fellow of the Indian Council for Historic Analysis and a recipient of the Seoul Peace Prize Scholarship.
- CONTACT: prakash.nanda (at) hotmail.com
