Key is Israel’s announcement that it only strikes military targets in Iran.
The world has been bracing for Israeli retaliation against the Iranian regime since the Iranian military fired a barrage of more than 180 ballistic missiles at Israel more than three weeks ago in response to Israeli attacks on its proxy forces in the region.
The Israeli government has promised a “firm” response. There has been speculation that this could include targeting Iran’s nuclear sites, energy infrastructure or even the country’s leadership.
The latest in the Middle East: IDF confirms airstrikes against Tehran
However, if the attack is limited to purely military targets, then – depending on the scale of the damage – it could provide an opportunity to de-escalate into a two-way missile war that could ignite the region into full-scale military conflict.
Still, if the damage is significant, Iran is likely to follow through on its promise to retaliate again.
If that happens, the size of any Iranian counterstrike would be an important indicator.
If Iran chooses to reduce the number of missiles fired at Israel, that would also send a signal of a desire to de-escalate.
If any future strike is even bigger than the one on October 1st, then once again hostilities between Iran and Israel will be on the way to all-out war.
