The upcoming election presents the BNP and the Jamaat-e-Islami-led alliances a uncommon alternative to make inroads into constituencies lengthy dominated by the Awami League, which has been barred from the competition.
Political analysts say that the AL not solely stands to lose its conventional strongholds but in addition faces an more and more unsure political future.
For many years, the BNP and the AL managed to defend their bases. Following the restoration of democracy in 1991, energy alternated between the 2 events each 5 years, sustaining a type of stability.
That pendulum finally swung in the direction of the AL, which claimed victory within the final three extremely controversial elections. The elections in 2014 and 2024 have been principally uncontested, whereas the 2018 polls have been marred by widespread allegations of ballot-stuffing on the eve of polling day.
These manipulations left the BNP nearly sidelined. However with the AL off the poll this time, constituencies as soon as thought-about its strongholds are instantly up for grabs, analysts mentioned.
The BNP’s principal rival now seems to be the Jamaat-led 11-party alliance, mentioned Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, professor of Authorities and Politics at Jahangirnagar College.
“There may be scope for the BNP to win constituencies past its conventional bastions. Nevertheless, its marketing campaign methods, the private qualities of its candidates, and the get together’s total conduct will likely be essential components. Younger voters are anticipated to play a big position,” he informed this newspaper.
The AL historically drew roughly 30 % of the vote in previous aggressive elections. The large query now could be what position its loyal supporters will play. “This stays a topic of hypothesis,” he added.
In Might final yr, the interim authorities banned all actions of the AL and its related organisations over allegations of killings, crimes in opposition to humanity, and different grave offences in the course of the July rebellion. Consequently, the Election Fee suspended the get together’s registration.
Bangladesh noticed 12 nationwide elections between 1973 and 2024. The AL didn’t take part within the lopsided elections of 1988 and February 1996, whereas the BNP abstained from the one-sided contests of 1986, 1988, 2014, and 2024. Although the BNP contested the 2018 polls, it alleged that the vote was closely rigged.
An evaluation of knowledge from the Parliament Secretariat and the Election Fee reveals that normally elections since 1991, the AL received not less than 4 instances in 62 constituencies primarily in Faridpur, Shariatpur, Gopalganj, Bagerhat, Khulna, Bhola, Barishal, Dinajpur, and Mymensingh.
The AL’s strongest help base consists of twenty-two constituencies, which the get together received in each common election since 1991 (aside from the 1996 election it boycotted).
They embrace Gopalganj-1, 2, and three; Madaripur-1 and a couple of; Shariatpur-2 and three; Patuakhali-3 and 4; Bagerhat-1; Khulna-1; Faridpur-1; Sunamganj-3; Moulvibazar-4; Dinajpur-5; Sirajganj-1; Jamalpur-3; Kishoreganj-5; Tangail-1; Mymensingh-10; Gazipur-1; and Bandarban.
However, the BNP received 4 instances or extra in not less than 33 constituencies (besides within the elections it boycotted). Amongst them are Bogura-6 and seven; Chapainawabganj-1 and a couple of; Feni-1; Noakhali-1; Naogaon-6; Natore-1; Bhola-3; Chattogram-6; Munshiganj-4; Manikganj-1; and Dhaka-7.
Election professional Badiul Alam Majumdar mentioned the AL finds itself in a precarious state of affairs for a number of causes, primarily due to its shift in the direction of autocracy and kleptocracy.
“They denied folks their constitutional and political rights, in addition to voting rights,” mentioned Badiul, additionally secretary of Sushashoner Jonno Nagorik.
Hasanuzzaman mentioned the political outlook for the AL appears grim at this second. “The get together’s future will rely on the stance of those that will kind the federal government.”
WHAT BNP, JAMAAT SAY
Leaders from each events mentioned they’ve drawn up plans to win the as soon as AL-dominated constituencies.
BNP insiders mentioned that along with their common marketing campaign actions within the AL strongholds, the get together will intensify its door-to-door marketing campaign there.
They famous that voter turnout could be a key consider these constituencies.
Underscoring the necessity for a safe and peaceable voting atmosphere, Emran Saleh Prince, senior joint secretary common of the BNP, mentioned, “We are going to name for strict enforcement of regulation and order in these constituencies. The administration should act in order that voters can solid ballots freely and with out obstacles.”
When contacted, Jamaat Assistant Secretary Basic Ahsanul Mahboob Zubair mentioned the alliance candidates are working to win voter belief by tailoring their campaigns to native realities throughout Bangladesh.
SITUATION ON THE GROUND
All candidates, particularly from the BNP and the Jamaat, in Mymensingh-10 (Gafargaon upazila), are attempting to woo voters who’ve historically supported the AL in elections.
BNP candidate Mohammad Akhtaruzzaman mentioned they’re giving speeches, specializing in concord, safety, and justice to attract the eye of AL voters.
“For the reason that August 5 changeover, I’ve been working to revive peace and safety in our space. This has had a optimistic affect on voters…”
He additionally mentioned that organisational motion was taken in opposition to some get together activists for his or her alleged involvement in assaults on AL supporters. These activists have been stored out of the election marketing campaign.
Requested about Jamaat’s technique, Ariful Haque, finance secretary of Jamaat’s Gafargaon upazila unit and a member of the election organising physique, mentioned, “We hope that AL supporters will solid ballots in our favour… There was no occasion of Jamaat’s involvement in assaults on Awami League activists, the submitting of instances, or land grabbing.”
In Madaripur-1 (Shibchar upazila), Nadira Akter, the BNP candidate, has been holding courtyard conferences with AL leaders, lots of whom pledged their help for her within the upcoming polls, mentioned get together sources.
At one of many latest conferences, she mentioned, “We should transfer ahead unitedly for Shibchar. Victory for the BNP will be achieved solely via unity… Sooner or later, there will likely be no false instances in opposition to anybody in Shibchar. After the election, Awami League leaders and activists won’t face harassment.”
Within the close by constituency of Madaripur-2, the BNP candidate, Jahandar Ali Mia, is paying visits to union parishad chairmen and members often called AL supporters to realize their backing, whereas followers of the Jamaat-led alliance candidate, Maulana Abdus Sobhan from Khilafat Majlis, are assembly AL leaders, based on native sources.
Jahandar mentioned that trustworthy AL activists are going via a troublesome time, going through oppression, harassment, and arrests.
“These AL leaders and activists who practised clear politics deserve safety, and it’s our accountability to face by them…,” he informed this newspaper.
When contacted, Sobhan mentioned he has been in search of votes from these AL leaders he considers reliable.
Within the conventional AL stronghold of Gopalganj-1, the BNP candidate, Selimuzzaman Selim, is encouraging AL supporters to beat their fears and vote for him, whereas the Jamaat candidate, Muhammad Abdul Hamid Molla, is assuring AL activists that they received’t face harassment solely based mostly on their political id.
In Gopalganj-3, MM Rezaul Karim, the Jamaat-led alliance candidate, mentioned, “Our efforts are targeted on distant areas, villages, and wards, the place face-to-face interactions with bizarre residents are serving to construct curiosity within the election.”
In the meantime, the BNP and the Jamaat have adopted diversified methods to win over AL supporters in Faridpur.
BNP campaigners are emphasising that the get together is pro-liberation and due to this fact deserves the backing of all pro-liberation forces. The Jamaat, alternatively, is insisting that it neither filed instances in opposition to AL activists nor harassed them for the reason that mass rebellion.
A number of voters mentioned many native AL leaders joined the election campaigns of both the BNP or the Jamaat, citing private safety and political issues.
This, they mentioned, created confusion amongst grassroots AL supporters, lots of whom now really feel that it’s higher to avoid polling centres.
In search of anonymity, a voter from Bhanga upazila mentioned, “Normally, whoever will get the votes of AL supporters wins Faridpur-4. Now that many native [AL] leaders are becoming a member of totally different events, grassroots supporters might vote at their very own discretion.”
Election professional Abdul Alim mentioned the AL’s affect in its strongholds has weakened however a section of voters continues to be loyal to the get together.
“That share might have declined, however it’s undeniably there,” he informed The Each day Star.
He mentioned the AL voters are more likely to be cut up into a number of teams. One group might shift in the direction of the events contesting the polls. One other group — primarily consisting of hardline supporters — might refuse to vote.
A 3rd group might search for a “No Vote” choice. After they discover it absent on the poll at polling centres, they might stamp a number of bins to spoil ballots, he added.
[Our Mymensingh, Gopalganj, Faridpur, and Madaripur correspondents contributed to this report]
