TOI correspondent from Washington: A uncommon congressional rebuke of President Donald Trump’s Canada tariffs, a presidential rant focusing on a flagship US-Canada bridge, and an impending Supreme Court docket ruling on emergency commerce powers are converging to deepen uncertainty round American commerce coverage — and elevating contemporary doubts concerning the sturdiness of the fledgling US-India commerce framework.On Wednesday, the Republican-controlled Home of Representatives voted 219–211 to terminate Trump’s use of a “nationwide emergency” to impose punitive tariffs on Canadian items.
Six Republicans joined all however one Democrat in backing the decision — a rare act of dissent in a chamber the place the GOP holds a slim 218–214 majority. The Senate, regardless of its Republican tilt, has already voted twice to dam the Canada tariffs.The decision is essentially symbolic; Trump, armed with government energy, is unlikely to retreat. However its political weight is important. Lawmakers seem more and more uneasy with the president’s expansive use of emergency powers below the Worldwide Emergency Financial Powers Act (IEEPA) to wage commerce battles historically overseen by Congress. Some on Capitol Hill privately acknowledge the vote was additionally meant to sign to the Supreme Court docket — which is reviewing the legality of tariffs — that Congress doesn’t endorse this interpretation of government authority.The Supreme Court docket heard oral arguments final November, and is anticipated to rule quickly, probably as early as its subsequent non-argument session on February 20. Justices throughout ideological traces expressed skepticism about whether or not fentanyl flows and commerce imbalances — of the type U.S has with India — qualify as a “nationwide emergency” justifying unilateral tariffs. If the Court docket strikes down the measures, the federal authorities might face $150–$200 billion in refunds to importers who’ve paid the duties since 2025 — a fiscal and political jolt.The authorized battle unfolds in opposition to a backdrop of renewed friction with Ottawa. In a Monday social media outburst, Trump threatened to dam the opening of the $4.6 billion Gordie Howe Worldwide Bridge linking Detroit and Windsor, accusing Canada of exploiting the US and demanding 50% possession. He claimed the Canadian-funded venture violated “Purchase American” guidelines — assertions flatly contradicted by Canadian officers, who notice that each US and Canadian metal and labor had been used.For Canada, the episode reinforces a sample: agreements and understandings could be upended by presidential impulse. Trump as soon as celebrated the United States-Mexico-Canada Settlement (USMCA) because the “greatest commerce deal in historical past,” changing NAFTA, which he had branded the “worst ever.” But even after signing USMCA in 2020, he imposed metal and aluminum tariffs on Canada and Mexico below nationwide safety provisions and repeatedly threatened withdrawal to extract concessions on unrelated points equivalent to immigration.An identical script performed out with South Korea. After renegotiating the KORUS commerce pact in 2018 and touting it as extra equitable, Trump lately slapped 25% tariffs on Korean exports, citing procedural delays regardless of Seoul’s pledge of $350 billion in US investments. Allies have drawn a lesson: no deal is immune from revision. That notion now hangs over India.Final week’s announcement of a US-India commerce framework was billed by the White Home as a breakthrough, with claims that India would slash tariffs on US pulses, remove digital providers taxes, and buy $500 billion in American items. Inside hours, following pushback from New Delhi, references to pulses disappeared, digital tax commitments had been eliminated, and language stating India had “dedicated” to purchases was softened to “intends.”The speedy edits advised that parts had been inserted prematurely — or aspirationally — and withdrawn as soon as challenged. For Indian negotiators, the episode echoed a broader concern: goalposts in Washington can shift with out warning.If a signed trilateral pact like USMCA can not protect Canada from sudden tariffs, and if Congress itself is shifting to curb presidential commerce powers, India has motive to query the sturdiness of any association struck with the present administration. New Delhi is concurrently negotiating agreements with the UK and the European Union — companions considered as procedurally steadier.Commerce agreements relaxation not solely on market entry however on institutional credibility. With Congress rebelling, the Supreme Court docket weighing limits on government authority, and the president oscillating between reward and punishment of his personal offers, America’s commerce posture seems unsettled. For India, the message is cautionary: in Washington’s present local weather, even signed agreements might show provisional.
