A doable US assault on Iran has not solely rattled Tehran but additionally virtually all its neighbours, together with Saudi Arabia, Qatar, and even Pakistan.
After provocative statements like “assistance is on the way in which” and warning of stern motion towards Iran’s hanging of protestors, Trump has dialled down the rhetoric previously few days.
The specter of an assault is way from over, with the USS Abraham Lincoln provider strike group now on its technique to the Center East. Some reviews additionally claimed that the George H.W. Bush Service group was additionally headed to the area.
The final time the Pentagon ordered such a heavy deployment, we noticed the seize of Venezuelan head of state Nicolas Maduro and his spouse.
The concern of doable US strikes on Iran has stirred regional uneasiness for a wide range of causes.
The most important concern among the many US allies within the area is potential Iranian retaliation on the American army bases unfold throughout the area, from Saudi Arabia to Turkey, as an Iranian official just lately warned.
The Gulf oil-producing states have warned that an escalation may result in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a essential chokepoint for world oil commerce. This may end in a large uptick in oil costs, dealing an enormous blow to world markets. However extra importantly, analysts consider {that a} discount in Gulf oil provides may immediate main oil customers, similar to China, to hunt various suppliers.
Nevertheless, there’s one other nation that fears {that a} strike on Iran and a doable weakening of the Islamic Republic may trigger an upheaval on its borders.
Pakistan At Direct Danger?
Pakistan believes {that a} steady and peaceable Iran is in Islamabad’s curiosity.
“Any US army assault on Iran would have harmful, destabilizing penalties for the complete area,” former diplomat and political analyst Maleeha Lodhi advised AFP. “Pakistan particularly can be significantly affected if there’s a spillover throughout its border. Any ungoverned area opening up close to its border would strengthen militants in its restive province of Balochistan and pose a grave safety risk to Pakistan,” she added.
Since June 2025, when Israel attacked Iran and triggered the ’12-day battle’, Pakistan has been opposing all assaults on Iran regardless of cozying up with america after the four-day battle with its arch-rival, India.
The explanations behind this are manifold.
Pakistan and Iran share an roughly nine-hundred-kilometre border, which has been a haven for Baluch militancy on either side.
The Baluch-Sistan province of Iran, bordering Pakistan’s Balochistan, is house to Baloch separatists who’re in a relentless state of strife with Islamabad.
Pakistan alleges that militant teams just like the Baloch Liberation Military (BLA) and the Balochistan Liberation Entrance (BLF) have factions throughout the border, which permits the militants to launch assaults on Pakistani safety forces with impunity.
Equally, Pakistan’s Balochistan province is a haven for anti-Iran militias just like the Jaish al-Adl and Ansar Al-Furqan that incessantly goal Iranian safety forces.
This has brought on a mutual mistrust between the 2 neighbours, with each international locations accusing the opposite of harbouring terrorists.
These tensions peaked in January 2024 when Iran launched missile and drone strikes on Jaish al-Adl bases in Pakistan’s Panjgur district. Pakistan retaliated with Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar, utilizing drones, rockets, and plane to strike BLA and BLF hideouts in Iran’s Saravan, as reported by the EurAsian Instances on the time.
The 2 international locations made peace later and took coordinated measures to revive ties. Later, throughout his 2025 go to to Pakistan, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian reiterated the brotherhood between the 2 international locations and signed 12 agreements with Islamabad.
A possible US assault on Iran has stirred fears that anarchy, weakening of the Iranian regime, and the potential of borders being left ungoverned could possibly be disastrous for Pakistan’s safety, as it should primarily embolden the Baloch militias to additional intensify assaults on Pakistan.
With an increase in Baloch militia assaults in current occasions, such because the daredevil hijack of the Jaffar Categorical in March 2025, Pakistan’s fears appear greater than legitimate. Furthermore, Pakistan already has unstable borders with the Taliban-run Afghanistan in addition to with India, and can’t afford one other unstable frontier.
As well as, Pakistan may discover itself in the course of a US-Iran escalation attributable to its pleasant relations with america.
The US may use Pakistan’s army amenities and airspace to strike Iran — which may additional pressure already tough ties between the 2 neighbours.
Earlier this week, Pakistan’s Ministry of Data and Broadcasting refuted claims on social media that Islamabad can be used as a launchpad to help the US in a possible army assault towards Iran.
Recall the US invasion of Iraq in 2003. Iran bolstered Shia militias that not directly affected neighbouring states, and the same dynamic may unfold if Iran views Pakistan as a US ally.
An American assault on Iran may have a cascading impact on cross-border terror by emboldening the militias to launch extra assaults on Pakistani soil.
For now, it’s unclear whether or not Pakistan, like its Gulf counterparts, is lobbying america to stave off a disaster. Nevertheless, it expressed its hope to the UN Safety Council for early normalization of the state of affairs in Iran, arguing that worldwide regulation and the UN Constitution prohibit exterior intervention in a state’s home affairs.
“The UN Constitution prohibits the risk or use of power towards different states’ territorial integrity or political independence, or interference in issues primarily throughout the home jurisdiction of states,” Ambassador Asim Ahmad, Pakistan’s everlasting consultant to the UN, mentioned at an emergency assembly.
