In the battleground of American democracy, where any vote can tip the scales, the stakes are higher than ever. In some swing states, the difference between a winner and a loser can be as small as 20,000 votes. That tension has led GOP leaders and supporters to raise alarm about the potential for illegal immigrants to be naturalized as citizens just in time for the Nov. 5 election. They argue that this influx could sway the electorate toward Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris, capitalizing on the belief that newly naturalized voters tend to lean Democratic.
The naturalization rate of US immigrants in 2024 is the highest in 10 years. And some swing states are seeing a high level of new citizens.
Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump and his supporters say that could lead to gains for Democrats in the seven swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
The latest poll by AtlasIntel shows Trump leading in two swing states, Michigan and Pennsylvania, which together yield 33 electoral votes.
A New York Times survey of battleground states showed Trump was slightly ahead in three swing states — Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
However, Trump’s small lead may be overstated during actual voting in these swing states.
In this tight battle for swing or battleground states, Republican supporters say Democrats are speeding up citizenship applications for “illegal immigrants” and naturalizing them to sway votes in battleground states.
DROP STATES GET THE VOTES OF NATURALIZED AMERICANS?
Several reports claim that naturalization rates in some of the swing states, including Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Wisconsin, have exceeded the margin of the presidential vote for each state in 2020.
“You look at the math there and you can find that if people were engaged, they would have a decisive impact in the election,” Nicole Melaku, executive director of the National Partnership for New Americans (NPNA), told NPR. “You can take any part of the country and you can see what role immigrants and naturalized voters will play in this year’s election,” Melaku said.
Generally, green card holders or lawful permanent residents who have been in the US or been married to a US citizen for at least three years become naturalized citizens.
Trump and some of his biggest supporters, such as Elon Musk, have argued that Democrats are naturalizing “asylum seekers” to win votes. Musk said this could be the last election in American history if the Democrats win.
“The Biden/Harris administration is transporting ‘asylum seekers’ who are fast-tracked to citizenship directly to states like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Arizona. It’s a surefire way to win any election,” said Musk, CEO of Tesla Motors and owner of X.
Many of these naturalized citizens live in the swing states of Georgia, Arizona, Nevada and Pennsylvania.
“They won’t admit it. They will describe it as naturalization is the ultimate goal and we want people to become Americans … but it’s always a political tactic to get more citizens on the assumption that they’re going to vote for you,” Laura Rice, director of the Center for Border Security and Immigration at Heritage Foundation, told Fox News.
FOUR MILLION IMMIGRANTS BECAME CITIZENS, HIGHEST PERCENTAGE NOW
Nearly 4 million immigrants have been granted US citizenship since 2020, according to government data.
The current rate of naturalization has not been seen since 2013 and 2014, the New York Times reported. About 3.3 million immigrants became citizens during Biden’s administration, it said.
In some swing states, these naturalized citizens may matter.
“In Arizona, we keep talking about there being a margin of 10,000 votes to win,” said NPNA’s Nicole Melaku, pointing to Joe Biden’s 10,457-vote victory in Arizona in 2020.
“This share of votes is growing and if people make sure of it [naturalised] people engaged in this year’s elections, they can make a significant difference,” added Melaku.
NATURALIZED VOTERS CAN INFLUENCE SWITCHING STATES
Another survey released by the National Partnership for New Americans highlighted how 76 percent of naturalized citizens from swing states and Democratic-leaning California said they would vote.
“Over 40% of naturalized voters in Nevada, Arizona and Georgia identify as Democrats, as do more than a third of voters in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Florida,” the NPR report states.
According to a Los Angeles Times report, some naturalized citizens are Democratic-minded.
The US processes citizenship applications much faster now.
The average time to process a certificate of citizenship decreased from 11.5 months in 2021 to 4.9 months in 2024, according to data from U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services through July 31.
This was reportedly done to speed up the process after a backlog of applications following the pandemic.
However, this addition of immigrants at a high rate may change voting dynamics.
“Increasing the efficiency of naturalization is not just about clearing the backlog; it potentially changes the electorate, just months before a key election,” Xiao Wang, CEO of Boundless, a company that analyzes immigration trends, told the NYT.
“Every citizenship application could be a vote that decides Senate seats or even the presidency,” Wang added.
‘RACISTS PANIC OVER IMMIGRANT VOTE,’ DEMOCRATS SAY
While the naturalization process could change voter dynamics and benefit Democrats, Republicans are also trying to stoke this fear of illegal immigration among voters.
Russian chess legend Garry Kasparov, who lives in New York, said Elon Musk was trying to “panick racists”.
“Instead of worrying about the 50% of eligible voters in the US who don’t vote, or Trump who literally tried to overturn the last election with violence, he’s trying to panic racists about immigrants who will vote someday . Which is normal and good and has been an American strength for centuries,” Kasparov said.
Reports say that different groups among naturalized voters vote for different parties and that naturalized Americans are not a homogenous category. So even with the US granting citizenship at a high rate for decades, with some of these new voters leaning Democratic, there is no guarantee that most of those voters will vote Democratic. However, voting dynamics in swing states are changing and could ultimately determine the outcome.
