Mohammed bin Salman, Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince, as soon as in contrast Iran’s Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to Hitler, and warned that if Tehran acquired a nuclear bomb, his kingdom would do the identical.
For years, rivalry between Saudi Arabia, a Sunni monarchy, and Iran, a Shia theocracy, had been a defining characteristic of West Asian geopolitics. From Lebanon and Syria to Iraq and Yemen, the 2 backed opposing sides, with Iran supporting Shia militias and Saudi Arabia Sunni factions.
But, when Iran was rocked by mass protests over the previous two weeks, Riyadh was conspicuously silent. And when U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to bomb Iran over its crackdown on demonstrators, Riyadh instructed Tehran it could not permit its air house or territory for use for such an assault, AFP reported.
Based on Gulf and American officers, Saudi Arabia, together with Qatar, Oman and Turkiye, lobbied the Trump administration in opposition to army motion.
Why did Riyadh oppose an American strike on a rustic it had, till not too long ago, thought to be its principal rival in West Asia?
Editorial The good reckoning: On the crises in Iran
Worry of instability
Three broad causes stand out.
First, the Saudis seem cautious of the narrative that exterior army punishment is justified as a response to inside repression. Regardless of their sectarian divide and geopolitical rivalry, each Saudi Arabia and Iran are ruled by authoritarian methods.
Within the case of Iran, not less than there are nationwide and parliamentary elections by which thousands and thousands of individuals take part. Saudi Arabia holds managed elections solely on the municipal degree. If Iran could be “liberated” via an exterior assault, critics may invoke the identical logic in opposition to the dominion ought to it ever drift away from the U.S. orbit in West Asia.
What makes Iran a goal and Saudi Arabia shouldn’t be shouldn’t be a qualitative distinction in governance fashions, however two different elements. One, Saudi Arabia can commerce, make investments, settle for investments freely and broadly meet the financial wants of its inhabitants, whereas Iran faces a extreme financial disaster largely because of sanctions. Two, Saudi Arabia is an American ally that hosts U.S. troops; Iran, against this, is considered as an adversary in Washington and Tel Aviv.
Second, having seen the chaos exterior interventions delivered to nations like Iraq and Libya, Saudi Arabia and different Gulf nations are cautious of an invasion in Iran, which they concern may plunge the nation of over 90 million into anarchy and instability. It may ship tens of hundreds of refugees to neighbouring nations.
Instability may unfold throughout the Persian Gulf waters and reignite the Houthis’ battle with Gulf monarchies, endangering Crown Prince Mohammed’s plan to show the dominion into an financial energy home that’s much less depending on oil.
The Israel issue
Lastly, and extra necessary, geopolitics.
Saudi Arabia and different Gulf monarchies have grown more and more alarmed by Israel’s behaviour over the previous two years. Since October 7, 2023, Israel has bombed not less than six nations. Hezbollah, the Iran-backed Lebanese Shia militia, has been degraded. In Syria, the pro-Iran regime of President Bashar al-Assad collapsed.
Emboldened by these developments, Israel, with the backing of the U.S., bombed Iran in June. In September, Israel struck Qatar, one other American ally, in a failed bid to assassinate Hamas’s political management –which was seen as a breach of the pink line by Arab kingdoms.
If the Islamic Republic of Iran have been to fall, the regional stability of energy would decisively shift in favour of Israel, enabling it to pursue dominance throughout West Asia.
Saudi Arabia, involved in regards to the U.S.’s shrinking safety umbrella and Israel’s aggression, has already began diversifying its strategic choices. Final yr, it cast a safety partnership with nuclear-armed Pakistan. It’s also searching for to construct nearer strategic ties with Turkiye, a former adversary, Qatar, on which Riyadh imposed a blockade in 2017, and Egypt.
So the dominion doesn’t desire a violent collapse of Iran’s republic—an consequence that would plunge the nation into chaos, deepen regional instability which may have home penalties and go away Israel extra highly effective which may pose long-term safety threats.
Printed – January 16, 2026 05:50 pm IST
