Ask people to predict the outcome of this weekend’s parliamentary election in Georgia and you’ll get “absolutely no idea” or “totally up in the air” coming right back at you.
Which is strange when you consider the fact that the question before voters in this small but strategically vital nation goes to the very root of what it means to be Georgian.
Here is the question – are we talking about a Georgia as a future democracy of the European type, on the way to membership in the European Union and NATO?
Alternatively, are we preparing for a Russian-style autocracy that will act as a satellite of its huge northern neighbor?
The ruling party here, called Georgian Dream, has transformed over the past 12 years from an explicitly pro-Western government into an organization closely linked to Moscow.
Its founder and controller, Bidzina Ivanishvili, is a billionaire businessman who made his fortune in Russia during the chaos that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union. More importantly, his critics say, Ivanishvili thinks and rules like a powerful Russian.
His party’s Kremlin-like “foreign influence” law, which was passed this summer amid mass public protests, threatens the activities of the media, civil rights groups and other NGOs.
Similarly, Georgian Dream introduced broad restrictions on LGBTQ+ rights in the name of “family values” and “protection of minors”. Once again, the legislation reflects similar measures in Russia.
But Ivanishvil is ready to go further, promising to ban all pro-Western opposition groups if the party wins a constitutional majority in the upcoming elections. Perhaps more than any other measure, it was this promise that put the country’s future in doubt.
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Interestingly, Georgian Dream rejects this “pro-Russian” characterization – in fact, Bidzine Ivanishvili rarely mentions Russia in his speeches.
Instead, it is said to be the “party of peace” seeking to ease tensions with its neighbor. The West, on the other hand, is portrayed as a “global military country” ready to plunge the country into a Ukraine-style war with Russia.
President Salome Zurabishvili after her vote
At the head of the attempt to overthrow the ruling party is the president of Georgia, Salome Zurabishvili. The former diplomat, who was born in France, is a staunch European and is leading the battle to stop the country’s drift into Russia’s orbit.
More importantly, she also worked as a political organizer, uniting dozens of dissident parties behind a plan that would see a technocratic government take power within a year of the election. This administration will implement reforms to renew accession negotiations with the European Union.
This is no mean feat for a man who has spent much of his working life in France – but then again, it shouldn’t surprise us.
Georgia has been consistently pro-Western since emerging from the ruins of the Soviet Union, and polls still show that to be true.
More than 80% support EU membership, with 67% supporting NATO membership, putting a significant portion of the country’s 3.8 million population at odds with the ruling party.
Still, the Georgian Dream’s brand of populist conservatism won it a solid base.
Critically, he used Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a tool to warn Georgians against improving relations with the West. Why risk a “second front,” they say, in this destructive conflict.
It’s an extremely tight race with few – if any – reliable polls to guide us. At this point, only one thing is clear – no one knows who will come out on top.
