More durable Western sanctions on Russian oil producers and stress from the Trump administration pushed Indian refiners to cut back imports in December and search alternate options. Prime importer Reliance Industries, whose refined merchandise are exported to EU, halted Russian oil imports in January.
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India’s decrease demand boosted the provision of low cost Russian crude for China, offering a buffer for the lack of Venezuelan oil on the world’s prime oil importer after Washington raided the OPEC producer and took over the sale of thousands and thousands of barrels of Venezuelan oil.
China’s Urals crude imports reached 405,000 barrels per day thus far this month, the best stage since June 2023, knowledge from analytics agency Kpler confirmed, with complete seaborne imports from Russia near 1.4 million bpd.
Vortexa knowledge confirmed that China’s seaborne Russian crude imports surged above 1.5 million bpd in December, up from about 1.2 million bpd within the first eleven months of 2025.
INDIA CUTS IMPORTS, EU BAN
In India, December Urals imports fell to 929,000 bpd, the bottom since December 2022, Kpler knowledge confirmed, versus a mean of 1.36 million bpd in 2024 and 1.27 million bpd in 2025.Urals has misplaced favour at refineries in India and Turkey that make diesel for export to Europe, two commerce sources mentioned, because the EU ban on gas produced from Russian-origin crude will begin on January 21. Refiners supplying Europe should run clear of Russian crude for at the very least two months earlier than output is eligible on the market.
China, however, exports little oil merchandise to Europe.
“There’s some profit for Chinese language refiners, they’d have the ability to snap up the Urals if costs are ok, at a time when Venezuelan shipments to China are falling,” mentioned Rajesh Chopra, chief petrochemical analyst with power consultancy XAnalysts.
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CHINA BUYS MORE DISCOUNTED OIL
China’s impartial refiners within the japanese Shandong province – the principle patrons of sanctioned crude – stepped up Russian oil purchases after receiving contemporary 2026 import quotas and as costs tumbled.
Shandong Yulong Petrochemical, a mega refinery sanctioned by the UK and the EU, has now absolutely pivoted to Russian crude.
That has raised Shandong’s Russian crude demand by about 250,000 bpd since November, Vortexa analyst Emma Li wrote in a January 13 report.
Yulong didn’t reply to a request for remark from Reuters.
The three ex-Sinochem refineries in Shandong are anticipated to purchase extra Russian crude with their 2026 import quotas as an alternative of shopping for by way of Sinochem, commerce sources mentioned.
URALS CHEAPER THAN IRANIAN OIL
Reductions for Urals crude for supply to China in late 2025 had been as extensive as $12 per barrel to ICE Brent since they had been redirected to Shandong from India, mentioned a Chinese language commerce supply, cheaper than Iranian Mild which was supplied at a reduction of $8 per barrel at the moment.
That has put stress on Iranian oil gross sales, merchants and analysts mentioned, with presents for Urals and Iranian Mild at present on par at reductions of about $10 a barrel for March-arrival cargoes.
In the meantime, the low cost on Russian ESPO mix, the principle grade China imports, was at round $7-8 per barrel, in contrast with a reduction of $5-6 in early December and a premium in September.
