United States President Donald Trump introduced on Monday that he’s pausing assaults on Iran’s energy infrastructure for 5 days and claimed that Washington and Tehran had held “superb and productive conversations” aimed toward ending their warfare.
The identical day, Trump advised reporters that his envoys had been speaking to a senior Iranian official.
Whereas Trump didn’t identify the official, a number of information shops in Israel and the US have reported that particular envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in-law, are speaking to the Iranian parliament’s speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.
Each the Iranian authorities and Ghalibaf have denied that talks between Washington and Tehran are happening. And within the Iranian system, any negotiations with the US would have to be authorised by new Supreme Chief Mojtaba Khamenei and the Supreme Nationwide Safety Council for them to have any legitimacy.
Who’s Ghalibaf, and what can we learn about these supposed negotiations?
What do we all know in regards to the talks Trump claims to be having?
On Saturday, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum to Iran to reopen the important transport route via the Strait of Hormuz or threat US assaults on its energy crops. In response, Iran mentioned it will assault power and water amenities in Israel and the Gulf. Ghalibaf additionally threatened corporations that maintain US Treasury bonds.
Then on Monday, Trump wrote in a Reality Social publish that Washington and Tehran had held “superb and productive conversations concerning an entire and complete decision of our hostilities within the Center East”. He ordered US forces to carry hearth in opposition to Iranian energy crops for 5 days.
Iran’s Ministry of Overseas Affairs has rejected Trump’s claims that negotiations had been beneath manner. Iranian officers accused Trump of pausing his threatened assaults solely in an try to calm power markets.
Information shops reported on Monday that Trump mentioned his envoys had been involved with a senior Iranian official.
“We’re coping with a person that I consider is probably the most revered – not the supreme chief. We now have not heard from him,” Trump mentioned advised reporters on Monday.
Trump mentioned he didn’t need to identify the Iranian chief as a result of he didn’t need to get him killed, however, the US information web sites Axios and Politico and a number of Israeli publications have reported that Witkoff and Kushner had been in contact with Ghalibaf.
Nevertheless, on Monday, Ghalibaf wrote in an X publish: “No negotiations have been held with the US, and pretend information is used to govern the monetary and oil markets and escape the quagmire during which the US and Israel are trapped.”
Who’s Ghalibaf?
Ghalibaf, 64, is Iran’s parliamentary speaker.
He served because the commander of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) air power from 1997 to 2000. After this, he served because the nation’s police chief. From 2005 to 2017, he was the mayor of Tehran.
Ghalibaf stood in elections for president in 2005, 2013, 2017 and 2024. He withdrew his bid for president earlier than the election in 2017.
In Could 2020, Ghalibaf grew to become the parliamentary speaker, changing Ali Larijani, who had been speaker from 2008. Larijani was a detailed adviser to former Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei, who was killed on the primary day of the US-Israeli warfare on February 28. Larijani, Iran’s high safety official, was additionally killed on March 17 in an Israeli strike.
What has Ghalibaf mentioned throughout the warfare?
In his posts on-line, Ghalibaf has been among the many fiercest critics of the US and Israel and has repeatedly issued threats to Israel, the US and the Gulf. These threats have usually echoed the IRGC’s warnings – however at occasions have gone even past what the army itself has threatened to do.
On March 14, he mocked Trump for claiming that the US had defeated Iran. Three days later, he declared that the Strait of Hormuz wouldn’t return to its pre-war state. On Sunday, Ghalibaf posted that monetary our bodies that fund Washington’s army are reputable targets for Iran: “US treasury bonds are soaked in Iranians’ blood. Buy them, and you buy a strike in your HQ and property.”
And on Monday, Ghalibaf posted a thread of posts on X, denying that talks with the US had been happening.
“Iranian individuals demand full and remorseful punishment of the aggressors,” he wrote. “All Iranian officers stand firmly behind their supreme chief and folks till this aim is achieved.”
What’s the chance of any talks proper now?
Specialists assume negotiations are believable as stress is constructing on Trump to finish the warfare however are cautious about any predictions over whether or not they may succeed.
“I might assess the chance of talks at 60 % for a number of causes,” Iranian-American economist Nader Habibi advised Al Jazeera.
Habibi defined that the prices of the warfare had been excessive for all events. Trump faces stress to comprise the warfare and forestall assaults on power infrastructure. He faces stress from Gulf nations and main financial companions, reminiscent of European nations, Japan and South Korea, who’ve been harmed by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. He additionally faces mounting considerations amongst his fellow Republicans nervous in regards to the rising value of gas impacting the get together’s probabilities within the midterm elections scheduled for November.
He added that Iran faces stress as nicely. “Iran’s surviving management is beneath appreciable stress and is nervous about assaults to key power and energy plant infrastructure.”
Habibi added that a number of mediating nations, reminiscent of Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Turkiye, have been capable of set up a communication channel with Iranian officers. This paves the way in which for negotiations.
Moreover, China can be utilizing its affect to get Iran to barter, Habibi mentioned.
“Israel and the USA had been anticipating a brief warfare with a path to regime collapse. Now they’re revising their expectations and are conscious of the excessive value of a chronic warfare during which Iran is ready to hit targets in Israel.”
What’s subsequent?
“It’s laborious to foretell whether or not any talks that happen within the subsequent few days can be profitable,” Habibi mentioned.
He added that there is perhaps a discount in violence and a few confidence-building measures on each side throughout the negotiations however there is no such thing as a assure of a complete deal that might finish the warfare.
“There is perhaps disagreement between Israel and the US on necessities for ending the warfare. Equally, some factions amongst Iran’s ruling elite may resist the concessions that Iran is anticipated to supply to satisfy the calls for of the USA,” Habibi mentioned.
