At the least 40,000 Indian residents are anticipated to come back to Russia as employees in 2026.
This was just lately introduced by Boris Titov, Russia’s particular consultant for relations with worldwide organizations within the subject of sustainable growth, to the Russian information company RIA Novosti. Vinay Kumar, the Indian ambassador in Moscow who additionally spoke with the company, stated between 70,000 and 80,000 Indian residents had been already working in Russia on the finish of 2025.
This motion from India to Russia has its origins in an settlement on labor mobility signed in December 2025 at a gathering in New Delhi between Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Russian President Vladimir Putin. The doc plans for a quota of over 70,000 Indian residents for 2026.
‘India must export unemployment’
In line with DW analysis, border crossing statistics present that the variety of Indian residents getting into Russia is growing. Whereas round 32,000 individuals crossed the border within the first quarter of 2025 and 36,000 within the second quarter, that determine jumped to 63,000 within the third quarter.
Indian employees are recruited via official and unofficial businesses, that are largely answerable for ensuring Indians get full and correct details about their future jobs. Wages for low-skilled Indian employees in Russia vary from €475 to €950 ($555 to $1,111) per thirty days, which is above what they might earn again at dwelling.
In December, Russian information outlet Fontanka reported on a various group of Indian employees cleansing the streets of St. Petersburg. They informed Fontanka that they obtained month-to-month wages of round 100,000 rubles (€1,125/$1,316), free lodging and meals, in addition to Russian language programs. In line with town administration, round 3,000 Indian residents on the lookout for work have come to St. Petersburg.
An Indian diplomat, talking on situation of anonymity as a result of sensitivity of bilateral relations, informed DW that the labor settlement was additionally useful for India. “Russia wants employees, India must export unemployment,” the diplomat defined.
Work or battle?
The Indian diplomat stated a proper settlement was essential to legalize Indian migration to Russia, which had lengthy been “taking place informally and chaotically.”
Up to now, this had typically led to Indians changing into victims of fraud. For instance, some Indians had signed contracts with the Russian military underneath false pretenses and had been despatched to the battle in Ukraine, the diplomat reported.
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, 126 Indians have signed contracts with the Russian military, in accordance with official figures. At the least 12 Indian residents have been killed on the Russian aspect, whereas 96 have returned to their homeland, in accordance with the Indian Overseas Affairs Ministry.
In 2024, throughout a go to to Moscow, Prime Minister Modi spoke with Putin in regards to the repatriation of Indians who had already signed contracts with the Russian military and likewise about the necessity to forestall new recruits from becoming a member of the military.
What obstacles do Indians face in Russia?
Russian economist Igor Lipsits pointed out that one of many greatest challenges for many Indian residents in Russia is overcoming the language barrier. Nearly all of Indian employees don’t communicate Russian, whereas a good portion of the Russian inhabitants, particularly in rural areas, doesn’t communicate English.
“You convey individuals into the nation with whom you can’t talk. Because of this they will solely be employed for the best jobs comparable to hauling, cleansing and shoveling snow,” stated Lipsits.
In his opinion, cultural variations additionally restricted the probabilities for integrating Indians into Russian society. “I feel they’re specializing in India as a result of they wish to reduce the variety of Muslims getting into the nation,” stated economist Andrei Yakovlev. “They’re assuming that primarily Hindus will come.”
Yakovlev doesn’t see Indian employees as an answer to the labor scarcity in Russia, a view shared by Lipsits. “It is not a lot avenue cleaners and unskilled employees which can be missing, however fairly expert professionals,” he stated, including that, “in the intervening time, that is primarily a take a look at run. They’re looking for out whether or not these persons are a superb match for the Russian financial system.”
Why is Russia specializing in India?
Within the wake of the lethal terror assault at Moscow’s Crocus Metropolis Corridor on March 22, 2024 — which noticed no less than 143 individuals killed, massive elements of the venue set ablaze and elements of the roof collapse — Russian authorities ratcheted up their rhetoric in opposition to migrants from Central Asia whereas proscribing the quantity individuals permitted to immigrate from these nations.
As Lipsits famous, the nations within the area themselves are more and more affected by a labor scarcity. “Residents of Central Asian states are actually being poached by different labor markets, primarily the UK and Southern Europe. In consequence, migrants are demanding greater wages, which makes employment much less profitable for Russian employers,” he defined.
The specialists DW spoke with stated Russia’s selection of India was not unintended. Rajan Kumar, a Russia knowledgeable at Jawaharlal Nehru College in Delhi, suspects Russia will probably pay the migrant employees in Indian rupees which it earns from oil commerce. Commerce turnover between India and Russia quantities to round $70 billion (€60 billion), however Russia solely buys $5 billion price of products from India. This implies rupees are accumulating in Russia, the knowledgeable defined. And Russia will wish to put them to good use.
Russia sees fallout of regular inhabitants decline
In line with the Federal State Statistics Service, Russia had a complete labor scarcity of two.2 million employees in 2024. Specialists from the nationwide Russian Academy of Sciences put the determine at as much as 4.8 million in 2023. The labor scarcity is noticeable in trade, building, logistics, medication, commerce and IT. Nevertheless, specialists emphasize that these estimates are solely approximate values.
Yakovlev stated the scarcity was not triggered solely by Russia’s battle in Ukraine, mobilization or emigration. In his view, the recruitment of Indians to Russia is a response by the Kremlin to deep-rooted demographic developments.
“Struggle, emigration and mobilization play a task, and these components exacerbate the a lot longer-term drawback of a gentle inhabitants decline,” added Lipsits. “All estimates of the deficit of two to five million individuals had been primarily based on an overheated financial system. Now the state of affairs is altering and a recession is starting. Firms are reducing working hours, and mass layoffs are doable this 12 months.”
Indian specialists are additionally cautious in regards to the labor initiative. Lekha Chakraborty, a professor on the Nationwide Institute of Public Finance and Coverage in New Delhi, warned that Russian demand for employees was distorted and unstable as a result of battle. In her view, “post-conflict normalization — or escalation — might quickly compress wages, set off layoffs and strand migrants amid repatriation hurdles, and restricted safeguards.”
This text was initially written in Russian.
