Ummah or {Dollars}: Pakistan’s excessive stakes dilemma amid US-Iran battle

Darkish struggle clouds collect as soon as extra over the deserts of the Center East.As President Donald Trump’s “American Armada” — the USS Abraham Lincoln Provider Strike Group — slices by way of the Arabian Sea towards Iran’s coast, tremors ripple straight to Rawalpindi’s navy headquarters in Pakistan.With Tehran’s crackdown demise toll surpassing 6,000 and Trump promising protesters that “assistance is on the way in which,” Pakistan stares down a well-known, blood-soaked crossroads.

The DNA of a dilemma: A historical past of “promoting the soul”

For the world, Pakistan’s present hesitation is a “rerun” of a decades-old script. Since its inception, Islamabad has mastered the artwork of leveraging its geography for Western “{Dollars}” whereas utilizing the rhetoric of the “Ummah” (the worldwide Muslim group) to take care of home legitimacy.Traditionally, one of the best instance is the post-9/11 period. Pakistan famously turned a “Frontline State” for the US struggle in Afghanistan, pocketing billions in Coalition Help Funds (CSF) to help in assaults on its Muslim neighbour. But, in a masterclass of double-dealing, whereas Islamabad offered the US with logistics, it concurrently offered Osama bin Laden with sanctuary in Abbottabad—actually within the shadow of its premier navy academy. This backstabbing technique allowed Pakistan to remain financially solvent by way of Washington DC whereas retaining its “strategic belongings” (the Taliban) alive to finally retain its pursuits within the area.

The “Greenback” pivot: Munir, Trump, and the post-Operation Sindoor actuality

Why is Pakistan so determined to entangle itself with the US once more? The reply lies within the aftermath of Operation Sindoor. When India launched surgical missile strikes on terror hubs in Muridke and Bahawalpur, the ensuing strains in US-India relations, triggered by US President Donald Trump’s repeated unverified claims of mediation between the 2 nuclear neighbours, left Islamabad with a gap.

The Trump administration’s transactional view of New Delhi’s strategy to purchasing Russian vitality amidst the Ukraine struggle and commerce deal delays additional opened a window for Pakistan to regain its standing as Washington’s indispensable associate.Cashing within the alternative, beneath COAS Gen Asim Munir and PM Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan moved aggressively to place itself as a stabilising proxy in alternate for debt aid. In response to CEIC, Pakistan’s exterior debt reached $134.5 billion in September 2025. With such extravagant out-of-reach debt and a sluggish financial progress charge of round 2-3%, the “Greenback” is now not a selection; it’s survival.

The “Ummah” masks: Selective outrage and the Iran relations

To the world, Pakistan portrays itself because the “Fortress of Islam” and the “Saviour of the Ummah.” This rhetoric is a cornerstone of its diplomacy, but it’s notoriously hole. Whereas Islamabad screams about Kashmir and Palestine, it stays deaf and blind to China’s exploitation of Uighur Muslims in Xinjiang, prioritising the “Yuan” over the “Quran.”Its relationship with Iran follows an analogous sample of comfort. Although they share a border and Islamic identification, their historical past is one in all deep-seated distrust. Iran was the primary to recognise Pakistan in 1947, but by the Nineteen Nineties, they had been on reverse sides of the Afghan civil struggle. The latest and violent crack within the “Ummah” masks occurred in January 2024, when the 2 neighbours engaged in a historic and unprecedented tit-for-tat navy alternate. On January 16, 2024, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard (IRGC) launched missile and drone strikes into Pakistan’s Panjgur district, claiming to focus on the Sunni militant group Jaish al-Adl. Pakistan, surprised by what it known as a blatant violation of its sovereignty, didn’t watch for a diplomatic decision.Inside 48 hours, Islamabad launched Operation Marg Bar Sarmachar.The Pakistan Air Power used JF-17s and Chinese language-made Wing Loong II drones to strike deep inside Iranian territory close to Saravan. This was the primary time a overseas nation had efficiently struck Iranian soil because the finish of the Iran-Iraq Battle in 1988.

How Pakistan might get entangled within the Iran-US battle

The danger of Pakistan being sucked right into a US-Iran vacuum shouldn’t be a matter of “if,” however “how.” Traditionally, Pakistan has performed a harmful recreation of “neutrality” whereas offering tactical assist to the very best bidder. Throughout the Nineteen Eighties Iran-Iraq struggle, Pakistan maintained ties with Tehran whereas secretly permitting the US to observe the area. Nonetheless, the 2026 panorama is way extra deadly.This time, with Gulf international locations just like the UAE, Qatar and Saudi Arabia formally denying the US the usage of their soil for offensive strikes towards Iran, the Pentagon could also be compelled to take a look at a possible “Jap Flank.” Pakistan’s proximity to Iran’s Sistan-Balochistan province, the IRGC’s comfortable underbelly, presents the US a strategic launchpad that the Gulf might now not presentFor Pakistan, the inducement is twofold. First, the {Dollars}, to maintain its ailing financial system functioning. Therefore, saying “no” to the US might imply quick sovereign default.Second, the narrative, by turning into Washington’s East-side Hammer towards Iran, Islamabad hopes to purchase US silence and even lively assist, for a renewed Anti-India narrative. Following the humiliation of Operation Sindoor, Gen Asim Munir seemingly sees a US alliance as the one method to re-level the taking part in subject towards New Delhi, particularly as Trump’s transactional diplomacy has precipitated a visual chill within the US-India ties.

The elite-street paradox

Whereas the world watches Islamabad’s tactical maneuvers with skepticism, the home actuality inside Pakistan tells a narrative of manufactured consensus. In response to a Gallup Pakistan Public Pulse Survey (Might 2025) performed simply after the ceasefire following Operation Sindoor, a staggering 97% of Pakistanis rated the navy’s efficiency as “good or superb.” This surge in recognition—with 93% of respondents reporting an improved picture of the Military—supplies Gen. Asim Munir with a novel “safety mandate.”Nonetheless, this mandate is brittle. The identical survey reveals a widening elite-street hole. Whereas the navy elite eyes US {Dollars} for survival, public affinity stays tethered to the Ummah. Within the post-conflict sentiment verify, Pakistan’s friendship with Iran noticed a big constructive increase among the many plenty, whereas the USA remained probably the most polarizing ally, with solely 39% of the inhabitants viewing the connection favourably. This improvement seemingly signifies in the direction of the ‘Basic’s Gamble’, the place Munir is utilizing a mandate constructed on anti-India sentiment to promote a pro-US coverage that the Pakistani avenue instinctively distrusts.

The sandwich nightmare: Refugees and rebels

Nowhere is the Ummah or {Dollars} disaster extra bodily than on the Taftan Border. The Iranian Rial has collapsed to 10,93,048 to the Greenback, turning the multi-million barter commerce, the lifeline of Balochistan, right into a ghost financial system.Pakistan now faces a ‘sandwich’ safety nightmare. Already bleeding on its border with a hostile Taliban-led Afghanistan within the north and the jap border with India remaining a powderkeg, a battle with Iran on the western facet would open a 3rd entrance. Additionally, a full-scale struggle in Iran would set off a catastrophic refugee disaster, with tens of millions of war-stricken Iranians more likely to surge throughout the 900km porous border into Pakistan’s Balochistan.That is the place the self-goal happens. Pakistan might attempt to use the chaos to get rid of Baloch rebels (BLA/BLF) who function on each side of the border. Nonetheless, simply because the Afghan refugee disaster fueled the TTP (Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan), an Iranian inflow might fire up the Baloch insurgency. Teams just like the BLA would seemingly discover “human shields” and contemporary recruits among the many displaced, turning a tactical alternative right into a decade-long safety nightmare for Rawalpindi.

The Shia issue

If the “Greenback” drives the state, the “Ummah” drives the road. Pakistan homes the second-largest Shia inhabitants on the earth (approx. 17-26 million), in line with Encyclopaedia Britannica. Siding with the US is not only a overseas coverage shift; it’s a home explosive.

This practically 15%-20% Shia inhabitants in Pakistan makes any overt siding with the US a home suicide mission. Nonetheless, a vital deterrent has emerged which will hold the “Ummah” from revolting: The Worry of the Breadline.In response to a Gallup Pakistan Public Sentiment Survey (This autumn 2025), an amazing 80% of Pakistanis—no matter sect—reported that ‘financial collapse’ ensuing from a regional struggle is their major concern. This survivalist intuition is a strong leash. Whereas the Shia group in cities like Parachinar and Quetta feels a deep non secular pull towards Tehran, the trauma of 40% inflation and the reminiscence of the 2023-24 financial brinkmanship might have created a “pragmatic pause.”The analysis means that for a inhabitants the place 49% now establish as ‘poor,’ the concern of a complete “Greenback” cutoff and the following famine would usually override the sectarian loyalty. This ‘abdomen over Sect’ actuality is exactly what the Munir-Sharif administration is banking on. By voting “No” on the UN decision condemning Iran just lately to pacify the road’s non secular identification, whereas quietly advancing US pursuits within the area to maintain the IMF faucets open, the state is performing a high-wire act. They’re betting that so long as the “Greenback” prevents a complete blackout, the “Ummah” will grumble, but it surely won’t burn the home down.

The Saudi angle

The dilemma is additional sophisticated by the September 2025 Strategic Mutual Protection Settlement (SMDA) signed with Saudi Arabia. This Nato-style pact states that an assault on one is an assault on each. If a cornered Iran strikes US bases or oil belongings on Saudi soil, Pakistan is treaty-bound to intervene.This results in the Nuclear Paradox. Throughout the 2025 June strikes, an Iranian official claimed Pakistan had promised its “nuclear umbrella” for Tehran towards Israel. Ishaq Dar rapidly moved to pacify the West, telling Parliament that Pakistan’s nukes are “just for Islamabad.” It was seemingly a calculated retreat supposed to reassure Trump and Israel that Pakistan won’t be the world’s first ‘Islamic Nuclear Martyr’ for a neighbour it secretly distrusts.

The twenty third Avenue bridge: The nice mediator?

Finally, Pakistan’s solely “out” is its distinctive diplomatic position. At 1250 twenty third Avenue NW in Washington, DC, the Pakistan Embassy continues to deal with the Iranian Pursuits Part. This constructing is the bodily manifestation of Pakistan’s double life. This distinctive diplomatic infrastructure makes Pakistan the one nation able to straight mediating between a vengeful Trump and a cornered Tehran. Additionally, in June 2025, stories emerged of Gen. Asim Munir holding clandestine conferences with Trump officers to debate the Iran-Israel tensions. Therefore, by performing because the bridge, Pakistan might hope to maintain the “{Dollars}” flowing with out totally burning the “Ummah” bridge. However because the USS Abraham Lincoln takes its place, time for mediation is working out. Pakistan is now not simply balancing; it’s standing on a razor’s edge.